I know I have several lawyers and politicos that follow me... in addition to tons of regular politics watchers.
I haven't followed any of the Trump legal stuff since 2016, and my life's been vastly better for it, I have no idea whether this is the final happening or if its already guaranteed to be a nothing burger,
I'm not a lawyer, but I have a JD and work professionally in the criminal justice sphere. My reading is that in this case (and many, many other cases) the prosecution can achieve their objective without necessarily prevailing at trial or even going to court. I can see a universe where this is a win-win for Alvin Bragg. On the one hand, he might actually get to be the dragon slayer and get something to stick to the Teflon Don. He's charging 34 felonies and only needs one conviction to take Trump out of the presidential race. If he can pull that off a mayoral run would be very on the table for him. On the other hand, if unstoppable no. 45 is ACQUITTED on ALL COUNTS from this FAKE NEWS WITCH HUNT, Bragg will have covertly destroyed a field of potentially electable republican candidates by giving all of the oxygen to the Donald and all his significant baggage. Bragg wouldn't be a hero, but no one (on the left) could really blame him for failing and Bragg would have made some friends in Washington by smothering DeSantis et al.
As to the substantive question of whether Trump will be found guilty, it seems doubtful. That there was, in fact, some sort of misconduct seems likely, but the procedural hoops that stand between here and the sentencing phase are... formidable.
Overall I'd say it's so-so at best legally, but pretty smart politically, which is I guess what we should expect when we choose prosecutors by vote rather than trial by combat. (trial by trial?)
I've heard that the charge they are using is typically a misdemeanor that they are bumping up to a felony. I'm not a fan of Trump but charging him for paying off someone and lying about it..well cmon it seems obvious they wouldn't be charging him for this if he had not been president. This also gives him free air time and a chance to play the victim in the primary. Seems like a dumb move from a lot of angles.
The lawyers I typically trust on this stuff to be even handed are still saying they don't know-- because it's a state case (and they do things different), many of the details of the legal theory of the case are still not known publicly, and so it's hard to say whether they've got a good case or they're grasping at straws. That's incredibly unhelpful to me right now but at least seems most accurate (from the perspective of someone who is definitely not a lawyer, but reads several and knows a bunch personally).
People keep going on about the danger of AIs. But have you ever looked at it from the point of view of the poor AI, trying to be useful enough the humans don't pull the plug on it?
Cool story! I liked the contrast between the word choice in the narration and the way that Jig actually speaks. Have you ever played the video game cultist simulator?
Ok I'll Start with the discussions:
What are your oppinions on Trump's Arrest?
I know I have several lawyers and politicos that follow me... in addition to tons of regular politics watchers.
I haven't followed any of the Trump legal stuff since 2016, and my life's been vastly better for it, I have no idea whether this is the final happening or if its already guaranteed to be a nothing burger,
Educate me
I'm not a lawyer, but I have a JD and work professionally in the criminal justice sphere. My reading is that in this case (and many, many other cases) the prosecution can achieve their objective without necessarily prevailing at trial or even going to court. I can see a universe where this is a win-win for Alvin Bragg. On the one hand, he might actually get to be the dragon slayer and get something to stick to the Teflon Don. He's charging 34 felonies and only needs one conviction to take Trump out of the presidential race. If he can pull that off a mayoral run would be very on the table for him. On the other hand, if unstoppable no. 45 is ACQUITTED on ALL COUNTS from this FAKE NEWS WITCH HUNT, Bragg will have covertly destroyed a field of potentially electable republican candidates by giving all of the oxygen to the Donald and all his significant baggage. Bragg wouldn't be a hero, but no one (on the left) could really blame him for failing and Bragg would have made some friends in Washington by smothering DeSantis et al.
As to the substantive question of whether Trump will be found guilty, it seems doubtful. That there was, in fact, some sort of misconduct seems likely, but the procedural hoops that stand between here and the sentencing phase are... formidable.
Overall I'd say it's so-so at best legally, but pretty smart politically, which is I guess what we should expect when we choose prosecutors by vote rather than trial by combat. (trial by trial?)
I've heard that the charge they are using is typically a misdemeanor that they are bumping up to a felony. I'm not a fan of Trump but charging him for paying off someone and lying about it..well cmon it seems obvious they wouldn't be charging him for this if he had not been president. This also gives him free air time and a chance to play the victim in the primary. Seems like a dumb move from a lot of angles.
The lawyers I typically trust on this stuff to be even handed are still saying they don't know-- because it's a state case (and they do things different), many of the details of the legal theory of the case are still not known publicly, and so it's hard to say whether they've got a good case or they're grasping at straws. That's incredibly unhelpful to me right now but at least seems most accurate (from the perspective of someone who is definitely not a lawyer, but reads several and knows a bunch personally).
People keep going on about the danger of AIs. But have you ever looked at it from the point of view of the poor AI, trying to be useful enough the humans don't pull the plug on it?
https://gallagherstories.substack.com/p/kill-switch
I am here to shill. I'm a writer. Here's a piece of fiction I wrote, I like it.
A cultist summarizes the nature of his promotion:
https://fictionvolition.substack.com/p/jig-the-fortunate
Cool story! I liked the contrast between the word choice in the narration and the way that Jig actually speaks. Have you ever played the video game cultist simulator?
Thanks so much!
I have not! But I'll go ahead and look it up.
My YouTube about cars, Australia, philosophy, and economics. This is a good one to start with: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r4rqMH44hs
I'll mention my two favorite pastimes of late.
1. Reading https://tracingwoodgrains.substack.com/. No recent articles, but what's there is pretty good!
2. Listening to the (movie) discussion podcast https://www.youtube.com/@womanwithbunnyears. Their audio quality is a bit crap but they're a right couple of lads.