Everything that is happening right now has had a historical precedent, including the assassination of a president, inflation, migration crisis, ethnic conflict, pandemics, war abroad, just in the USA. You know what ended up happening? Jackshit. A 19th century american would find this essay pathetic.
You are mostly a brilliant writer, but these "its going down" articles are born out of sheer historical ignorance.
What ended up happening was a rebellion that killed 2% of the prewar population and changed the course of human history and a civil war that killed 750,000 people.
"Oh but that doesn't count! because my preselected time scale that favours my conclusion cuts those dates off"
Apocalyptic wars that kill hundreds of thousands to tens of millions of people general happen in the west every 80 years with a supercycle every 200 years.
The last time it was proclaimed that "War has been abolished" and "nothing ever happens" was in Europe on the eve of world war 1. That's the thing about 80 year cycles, it's just long enough no one remembers the last one. The exact time you should be leaving the market or buying ammo is when everyone proclaims the market will never crash or war has been abolished.
This is a good dive into the cyclical models. and the leading indicators.
I stumbled on to Rudyard Lynch a few months ago. I was blown away by his acumen and knowledge of history.
Here’s what I think might be coming our way: I think they are going to remove KH. By remove I don’t mean replace. This will happen 1-5 days out or quite possibly the day of if possible.
This act will be blamed on Trump supporters and the election will be put on hold indefinitely. Small waves of violence will then occur in rural communities (Trump area) most likely perpetrated by militant migrants and/or blacks as payback for the demise of Harris.
Martial law with them be implemented…..do the math from there.
Trump told them too... That's the thing about messianic leaders, they can actually "Lead" people to places they wouldn't have otherwise gone (for better or worse)
If Trump cucks again after a loss, his spell is broken and his supporters are free of him to radicalize, if Trump wins or is assassinated likewise.
I said a different thing: I said THEY cucks, THEY stop protesting SINCE then. Trump never said them "be scared of protest ever again", quite the opposite.
What's the guarantee the Feds won't plant agent provocateurs in every protest to smear the right wing? Every little violence committed by the provocateurs will be used as justification for the Feds to be more authoritarian. Organised chaos always favours the establishment. Asymmetry favour the guerilla. Violence must be wielded like a dagger, not an axe
Yeah but what if one of those provocateur is a little too successful and suddenly every occupant of the IRS DC office is hanging off lampposts. Crows act insane at the best of times Jan 6 was one impassioned soapbox speech from being the American bastille or march on the twillaries with all the random violence and massive political reorintation such events entail. A plant beats up a black dude and suddenly the crowd decides hang em all is the right solution. A cop busts the head of one cute young republican girl and suddenly its open season on hogs. That shit happens and it happens so fast you don't notice.
You're making my point: RW are so scared by J6 (and I am not blaming them), expecially by "false flag/provocateurs" element, they simply stop organizing. Proud Boys parable, where they got infiltrated by "private" commies, is an egregious example.
"the Covid “Pandemic” did not show any significant excess deaths comparable to any other pandemic… Indeed depending on the numbers you look at the post vaccination life year adjusted excess deaths were considerably higher than the effects of Covid, if any effect existed (many datasets do not even show there was a pandemic)."
You're dead wrong about that. What else are you wrong about? Probably quite a bit.
I'm in a firm by open "nothing ever happens" mood. Iran being able to semi-reliably bypass Israel's missile defense systems means the entire western military calculus has to be altered, which means the triumphant Forever Stomping Boot of bureaucratic liberalism has to be postponed. The election will likely have shenanigans, but that was a given.
ALL social media turn their users into morons over time... The algorithm is designed to amplify the most outrageous messages that make people tick (and drop a comment to debunk/condemn/ridicule such messages). Engagement = Boost. That's how it works
That was a lot to absorb. Interesting and informative. CRISIS has been attempting to explain the Great Transformation of America from 1950 to 2020, and the crisis that is pending. I hope I'm wrong.
We have been moving in this direction for 75 years. As a history teacher and adjunct professor, I've taught the Civil War, and the seventy-year march of conflict and compromise. However, I could never quite feel the intensity of the hatred that had Americans killing each other with bayonets, cannons and rifles, to the tune of 650,000 dead. I understood it objectively, but being removed from it, not personally. In the current climate I'm beginning to understand, beginning to feel it.
Really good piece. I consider it as a strategic planning session. A what if that the big boys do both in war and politics, heck, even corporate takeover sessions. They have to consider all factors. However, there really are other factors in play. These factors place everything in a completely unpredictable context. In my own analysis, I've considered elements other than what you write about here and I feel that almost no prediction actually fully works. Parts of it do, but it's based on an analysis of prior politics globally.
So where am I at with this then? It's actually a fairly accurate depiction of the various possibilities as to what could happen. It does not take into account that since 2016, the American public, as a majority, have been thinking very differently. You are basing this all on the assumption that Americans have remained stuck in a pre-Trump mentality. They have not. If anything, they have evidenced an increasing intelligence that is happening at speed, and currently, at an accelerated speed. I am saying they are well aware of what could happen. And they are well aware of the strong possibility of riots. I have witnessed a fairly rapid evolution to the point where the average American is not only as perceptive of battlefield conditions and what the enemy or enemies are doing, but are increasingly able to get ahead of the curve, of the enemy.
After all, it was the American public that destroyed the MSM. How? Information. What is the one thing that in any conflict is the master? Information. The example you made of the card game and violence. There's the possibility of reading the intent of the other guy, avoiding the game altogether. There's the possibility that you are a trained fighter and know how to de-escalate as well, can predict he'll go off, talk him down or, when he decides to strike, deal with him.
How do we actually know that the American military is weak and not playing at weak? We don't, actually.
The factor at play here, is twofold. That the American people have changed in their mentality, their ability to roll with the punches, deliver their own punches and get ahead of the enemy in ways not seen before, fighting their own asymmetrical war, able to read the battlefield as well or almost as well, as a trained military asset.
I've watched this happen with my own eyes. Anyways, this is not to totally deride. But to add. The article lays out most of the worst that can happen in great detail. Very useful to prepare people. Like my mom said "expect the best but prepare for the worst."
No Madam la guillotine does not care" - loose Translation of a French revolutionary song.
Trust me that purges are about the worst damn curse you can call upon yourself. I recommend you do as wise people do and keep an in date passport and sufficient money for an international flight on hand.
I'm sure it's awful when the purge comes. This slow boil sucks too, though.
My kids are raised and doing their own things, and I don't like immigrants so I don't want to become one. I'll go down with this rusty ship, but hopefully with a positive purge scorecard
Hah see i’m 20, broke, and maybe 5 years from being able to claw my way off this sinking ship in some kind of comfort, so long as the damn thing doesn't sink first.
I feel for you young people. I tried to get my generation to wake up, but failed
A few years ago I told my daughters (both late 20s) to get out and offered to sell everything to bankroll them in doing so. They just think I'm a crazy old man 🤷
"Any politician or figure saying anything of the sort would quickly lose the respect of the mass middle-American right, and they’d look for someone else… On the contrary someone out there will probably find a way to say EXACTLY the thing that twists the knife, exactly the thing that advances the crowd most towards open rebellion… without actually saying anything that could get him charged with insurrection… Someone who says just enough that people enter the capital or the Whitehouse and refuse to leave for weeks or months(Trump won’t be around to say “We love you, go home.”)… but not quite enough that a court would sign the warrant for his arrest on the outside.
And then he’d take on a major symbolic powerful role, an avatar for the mob’s rage and grief…. And then he’d inevitably either fuck it up or get out over his skis when Biden or some delusional midwit decides to deploy troops or ask for warrants… And then HE’d become a political prisoner or martyr, and the cycle escalates."
This is JD Vance, right?
What are your opinions of Vance anyway? Personally I think he was a pretty good choice. His best trait is his intelligence and he would be well positioned to lead the right in the event of Trump's death, though he is rather inexperienced all things considered.
Vance is married to an Indian. He’s not actually reactionary, just like Trump he’s socially liberal and just an average democrat from 90s. He actually really does fit in with a Clinton admin. He’s even just a little pro-labor.
Things run much deeper than that. If he isn’t forced out of the way, he’d probably condemn disobedience and wind up irrelevant.
Everything that is happening right now has had a historical precedent, including the assassination of a president, inflation, migration crisis, ethnic conflict, pandemics, war abroad, just in the USA. You know what ended up happening? Jackshit. A 19th century american would find this essay pathetic.
You are mostly a brilliant writer, but these "its going down" articles are born out of sheer historical ignorance.
What ended up happening was a rebellion that killed 2% of the prewar population and changed the course of human history and a civil war that killed 750,000 people.
"Oh but that doesn't count! because my preselected time scale that favours my conclusion cuts those dates off"
Apocalyptic wars that kill hundreds of thousands to tens of millions of people general happen in the west every 80 years with a supercycle every 200 years.
The last time it was proclaimed that "War has been abolished" and "nothing ever happens" was in Europe on the eve of world war 1. That's the thing about 80 year cycles, it's just long enough no one remembers the last one. The exact time you should be leaving the market or buying ammo is when everyone proclaims the market will never crash or war has been abolished.
This is a good dive into the cyclical models. and the leading indicators.
https://youtu.be/q9xW6S5v6s4?si=6f_0qr-KvxHkrdfg
I love WIAH ❤️
I stumbled on to Rudyard Lynch a few months ago. I was blown away by his acumen and knowledge of history.
Here’s what I think might be coming our way: I think they are going to remove KH. By remove I don’t mean replace. This will happen 1-5 days out or quite possibly the day of if possible.
This act will be blamed on Trump supporters and the election will be put on hold indefinitely. Small waves of violence will then occur in rural communities (Trump area) most likely perpetrated by militant migrants and/or blacks as payback for the demise of Harris.
Martial law with them be implemented…..do the math from there.
US right wingers stopped protesting after 1/6 and you expect them to start a civil war?
Trump told them too... That's the thing about messianic leaders, they can actually "Lead" people to places they wouldn't have otherwise gone (for better or worse)
If Trump cucks again after a loss, his spell is broken and his supporters are free of him to radicalize, if Trump wins or is assassinated likewise.
I said a different thing: I said THEY cucks, THEY stop protesting SINCE then. Trump never said them "be scared of protest ever again", quite the opposite.
What's the guarantee the Feds won't plant agent provocateurs in every protest to smear the right wing? Every little violence committed by the provocateurs will be used as justification for the Feds to be more authoritarian. Organised chaos always favours the establishment. Asymmetry favour the guerilla. Violence must be wielded like a dagger, not an axe
Yeah but what if one of those provocateur is a little too successful and suddenly every occupant of the IRS DC office is hanging off lampposts. Crows act insane at the best of times Jan 6 was one impassioned soapbox speech from being the American bastille or march on the twillaries with all the random violence and massive political reorintation such events entail. A plant beats up a black dude and suddenly the crowd decides hang em all is the right solution. A cop busts the head of one cute young republican girl and suddenly its open season on hogs. That shit happens and it happens so fast you don't notice.
You're making my point: RW are so scared by J6 (and I am not blaming them), expecially by "false flag/provocateurs" element, they simply stop organizing. Proud Boys parable, where they got infiltrated by "private" commies, is an egregious example.
"the Covid “Pandemic” did not show any significant excess deaths comparable to any other pandemic… Indeed depending on the numbers you look at the post vaccination life year adjusted excess deaths were considerably higher than the effects of Covid, if any effect existed (many datasets do not even show there was a pandemic)."
You're dead wrong about that. What else are you wrong about? Probably quite a bit.
I've seen his sources, what about yours?
I'm in a firm by open "nothing ever happens" mood. Iran being able to semi-reliably bypass Israel's missile defense systems means the entire western military calculus has to be altered, which means the triumphant Forever Stomping Boot of bureaucratic liberalism has to be postponed. The election will likely have shenanigans, but that was a given.
Using X is not a very based thing to do. It turns all of its users into morons over time, without exception.
ALL social media turn their users into morons over time... The algorithm is designed to amplify the most outrageous messages that make people tick (and drop a comment to debunk/condemn/ridicule such messages). Engagement = Boost. That's how it works
That was a lot to absorb. Interesting and informative. CRISIS has been attempting to explain the Great Transformation of America from 1950 to 2020, and the crisis that is pending. I hope I'm wrong.
We have been moving in this direction for 75 years. As a history teacher and adjunct professor, I've taught the Civil War, and the seventy-year march of conflict and compromise. However, I could never quite feel the intensity of the hatred that had Americans killing each other with bayonets, cannons and rifles, to the tune of 650,000 dead. I understood it objectively, but being removed from it, not personally. In the current climate I'm beginning to understand, beginning to feel it.
Really good piece. I consider it as a strategic planning session. A what if that the big boys do both in war and politics, heck, even corporate takeover sessions. They have to consider all factors. However, there really are other factors in play. These factors place everything in a completely unpredictable context. In my own analysis, I've considered elements other than what you write about here and I feel that almost no prediction actually fully works. Parts of it do, but it's based on an analysis of prior politics globally.
So where am I at with this then? It's actually a fairly accurate depiction of the various possibilities as to what could happen. It does not take into account that since 2016, the American public, as a majority, have been thinking very differently. You are basing this all on the assumption that Americans have remained stuck in a pre-Trump mentality. They have not. If anything, they have evidenced an increasing intelligence that is happening at speed, and currently, at an accelerated speed. I am saying they are well aware of what could happen. And they are well aware of the strong possibility of riots. I have witnessed a fairly rapid evolution to the point where the average American is not only as perceptive of battlefield conditions and what the enemy or enemies are doing, but are increasingly able to get ahead of the curve, of the enemy.
After all, it was the American public that destroyed the MSM. How? Information. What is the one thing that in any conflict is the master? Information. The example you made of the card game and violence. There's the possibility of reading the intent of the other guy, avoiding the game altogether. There's the possibility that you are a trained fighter and know how to de-escalate as well, can predict he'll go off, talk him down or, when he decides to strike, deal with him.
How do we actually know that the American military is weak and not playing at weak? We don't, actually.
The factor at play here, is twofold. That the American people have changed in their mentality, their ability to roll with the punches, deliver their own punches and get ahead of the enemy in ways not seen before, fighting their own asymmetrical war, able to read the battlefield as well or almost as well, as a trained military asset.
I've watched this happen with my own eyes. Anyways, this is not to totally deride. But to add. The article lays out most of the worst that can happen in great detail. Very useful to prepare people. Like my mom said "expect the best but prepare for the worst."
I just hope we keep our bullshit inside of our borders, because we let things get this bad and we should deal with it internally
Politics are theater for old ladies, but a purging sounds good
"Madam la guillotine is singing:
I'm hungry feed me more
Madam la guillotine don't not care
Emigre, reactionary, or robespier
She eats them all she is fair
No Madam la guillotine does not care" - loose Translation of a French revolutionary song.
Trust me that purges are about the worst damn curse you can call upon yourself. I recommend you do as wise people do and keep an in date passport and sufficient money for an international flight on hand.
I'm sure it's awful when the purge comes. This slow boil sucks too, though.
My kids are raised and doing their own things, and I don't like immigrants so I don't want to become one. I'll go down with this rusty ship, but hopefully with a positive purge scorecard
Hah see i’m 20, broke, and maybe 5 years from being able to claw my way off this sinking ship in some kind of comfort, so long as the damn thing doesn't sink first.
I feel for you young people. I tried to get my generation to wake up, but failed
A few years ago I told my daughters (both late 20s) to get out and offered to sell everything to bankroll them in doing so. They just think I'm a crazy old man 🤷
Wow man. That was intense!
What is happening is dissolution, not election. The ruling party of 90 years is in Dissolution, I mean the Democratic Party.
As for Bellum omnium contra omnes… 🙏 Amen.
Strongly disagree with this analysis
Outstanding analysis. This should be required reading
"Any politician or figure saying anything of the sort would quickly lose the respect of the mass middle-American right, and they’d look for someone else… On the contrary someone out there will probably find a way to say EXACTLY the thing that twists the knife, exactly the thing that advances the crowd most towards open rebellion… without actually saying anything that could get him charged with insurrection… Someone who says just enough that people enter the capital or the Whitehouse and refuse to leave for weeks or months(Trump won’t be around to say “We love you, go home.”)… but not quite enough that a court would sign the warrant for his arrest on the outside.
And then he’d take on a major symbolic powerful role, an avatar for the mob’s rage and grief…. And then he’d inevitably either fuck it up or get out over his skis when Biden or some delusional midwit decides to deploy troops or ask for warrants… And then HE’d become a political prisoner or martyr, and the cycle escalates."
This is JD Vance, right?
What are your opinions of Vance anyway? Personally I think he was a pretty good choice. His best trait is his intelligence and he would be well positioned to lead the right in the event of Trump's death, though he is rather inexperienced all things considered.
Vance is married to an Indian. He’s not actually reactionary, just like Trump he’s socially liberal and just an average democrat from 90s. He actually really does fit in with a Clinton admin. He’s even just a little pro-labor.
Things run much deeper than that. If he isn’t forced out of the way, he’d probably condemn disobedience and wind up irrelevant.