The Weeks When Decades Happen
America's 100 Days
“There are decades when weeks happens, and weeks in which decades happen”
-Variously attributed to Marx, Lenin, Stalin, Robespierre, Napoleon, and Steve Bannon
As of writing it is 18 days to the election on Nov 5th, and 94 days to Inauguration Day on Jan 20th.
Maybe the most knowledgeable meta-historian/Commentator alive today, whatifalthist, has predicted a civil conflict in which over 1000 Americans die will begin in this period…
And I’d put the odds of “A Conflict” in which over 1 million die involving the US overlapping with this period at something like 70-80%. If it doesn’t happen then Biden will have somehow played the perfect drunken master and embodied the Trifecta of God favouring “fools, drunkards, and the United States of America”
That is a major American conflict: beginning, continuing, or dramatically ending within this period.
Civil War or “Troubles” is still slightly below a 50% likelihood… But that’s because I think The Ukraine or Israel wars going nuclear, a hot war with Iran, A Chinese move towards Taiwan, or what’s increasingly looking like a possible foreign backed Cartel-War on US soil (see Aurora)… might suck the oxygen out of a final domestic reckoning between America’s two political factions (Trump and Swamp)… at least until 2028 or 2032.
However America’s domestic instability is what’s driving the risk of escalation, miscalculation and uncertainty everywhere else and that will be the focus of this piece…
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I am unprepared for what I think is coming… I’ve maybe thought about such an outcome for a decade now, I lived through 2020 and the Canadian Lockdowns with outrage and totalitarian anxiety (remember Canada was the testing ground for what they wanted to do everywhere else, we got what Alex Jones only prophesized), and I’ve been a amatuer and semi-professional war and preparedness commentator for 2 and a half years now… and it’s hit me how unprepared I am.
I’m more prepared than most, but, setting aside the political implications, I would trade A LOT for another 4 year election cycle of 2023 conditions to make money, network, buy kit, develop skills, read books, write articles, prepare, plot...
I’m doubtful I’ll get it.
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I’m also painfully aware that a very large percentage of people and institutions would not financially or morally survive a long Biden “normalcy”… and that that desperation is driving a lot of the instability.
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But ya, I’m already starting to intuitively anticipate/feel that hard times—things moving too fast—reactive loss of initiative feeling that I’ve only really felt when a relationship was imploding, during that one very rough exam season in Uni, at the height of the 2020 election-2021 Canadian Lockdowns, or those months when the doctors discussed amputation as a possibility…
And depending on who you are and your personal situation, you’re either keenly feeling that as well or blissfully unaware.
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Nothing’s Changed Since 2020, Indeed Every Underlying Trend has Decayed
I cannot Emphasize this enough.
the Covid “Pandemic” did not show any significant excess deaths comparable to any other pandemic… Indeed depending on the numbers you look at the post vaccination life year adjusted excess deaths were considerably higher than the effects of Covid, if any effect existed (many datasets do not even show there was a pandemic).
Lockdowns, masks, the money printers, vote by mail…. all of it was either a social panic, political immune response to make Trump look bad, Chinese Psy-op, or… What it increasingly looks like…a Conscious plot to outlaw in-person political organizing, censor the web, harvest mail in ballots, and test-run totalitarian social and movement controls on “like-American” populations in Canada and Australia and compliant blue states… in addition to laundering hundreds of billions of dollars through big pharma (coincidentally the Ukraine war started the exact same month the Canadian Trucker convoy was finally broken up… did they play hardball with Putin to change the topic and keep the money flowing?)
NONE of the factors that made 2020 have gone away, and as whatifalthist has said in some of his interview, the factors that he looked at to reassure himself that America might not be on the brink of war in 2020, that inflation was still contained, that the cost of housing wasn’t overly burdensome historically, that credit card and other forms of debt remained low… All those core indicators of geopolitical stability/instability have reversed and now predict major tumult.
Indeed THE core instability of 2020 was NOT the virus, but ethnic conflict within America between blacks and whites… A state of ethnic tension that has gotten profoundly worse with the addition of 4-10 million migrants of the most dysfunctional ethnic and national backgrounds now commiting crimes and carving out territories and spheres of influence within American cities.
The ONLY reason things seem relatively peaceful at the moment is the Left is currently in charge of the government and sees ethnic stability as momentarily advantageous to their electoral chances… a state of play that will only exist for 18 more days.
After that either Trump wins, in which case they are incentivized to reverse entirely and wield all those new migrants and existing problem ethnicities to riot and act as shock Troops against Trump supporters. That way House Democrats and Regime Republicans can try to prevent a Trump confirmation, Something they have openly discussed and plan to do.
Or if Trump loses, or “loses”, such riots would be useful as a weapon to try and crush MAGA dissent, and to create the political pressure for a mass amnesty of illegal aliens, as a means to lock in in benefits and perks from the illegals perspective, and lock in democrat/regime electoral dominance.
Likewise the Geopolitical position of the American empire is VASTLY worse with 2 wars that didn’t exist in 2020, cascading entanglements that are devouring resources (US arms stockpiles are dangerously low thanks to Ukraine and Israel, and now multiple Aircraft Carriers have been exhausted of Crew and supplies by spending almost a year on station in the Mediterranean and Gulf, in addition to the Amphibious Assault Aircraft carrier USS Bonhomme Richard that burnt in port in 2020.
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Beyond that, as we’ve already seen of the coast of Yemen, anti-ship missiles and especially hypersonic missiles are at the point where they pose serious threats to US Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carriers, with many Hypersonic missiles currently outranging US F-35s and other Carrier based aircraft.
But setting aside all of the nitty specifics and changes in Military, geostrategic, and economic reality that are currently tearing apart US hegemony and stability…
There are basically 5 Scenarios whereby we could enter a potentially decades spanning global crisis and unending series of wars… Within the next 90 days.
And if you think any that follows is an insane amount of history to squeeze into such a small period… I’d remind you that Napoleon escaped Elba, landed in France defeated or recruited multiple armies, Marched on and captured Paris, reconstituted his government, had war declared on him by the world, invaded Belgium, fought the Prussians, and then had one of the most disastrous battles of all time and lost it all…
Entirely within a period of 110 days.
They made the greatest movie of all time about it (HD Fan recut on Youtube).
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HISTORY WANTS TO HAPPEN. It wants to happen faster than anyone can tolerate. And only the most stable constant efforts of the most powerful military force in world history has kept it from happening… The Titan of US hegemony is struggling to hold that weight… This is how it could trip:
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1. Trump Assassinated
2. Trump Elected
3. Kamala Elected
4. Wider Middle-East War
5. War in Europe
6. War With Cartels/Migrants
7. Thermonuclear War
And the most likely outcome: Some combination of the above
There have already been between 3 and 7 assassination attempts on Trump depending on how you count.
And while all of them have been incredibly amateurish, whether we want to talk about the British boy who tried to grab a service pistol in 2016 (an recieve a hagiographic BBC documentary for his effort), Matthew Crooks 8 shots fired wounding 7 and killing 1, or Ryan Routh’s bungled attempt with a rifle that had an electrical taped scope.
The thing is though… This is how it has gone with freaks, losers, and people who seemingly can’t procure a decent weapon to save their lives.
There are actually competent people out there who want Trump dead.
The Trump Campaign has requested military aircraft and vehicles, and has been employing decoy planes and convoys to travel about the country as he campaigns.
The reason for this is reports that Iran and Foreign terror groups have snuck Man Portable Air Defense Systems MANPADS… Shoulder fired missiles designed to shoot down aircraft, into the United States across the southern border with the goal of targeting Trump.
Now if this sounds odd and fishy to you… IT IS!
First Iran, as we have seen from the cycles of back and forth with Israel, is an incredibly cautious power, that does not want bold escalations. They, like Russia and China, rightly, perceive time as on their side, that American economic, military, and geostrategic hegemony is slipping and America’s ability to threaten is decaying as technologies like drones and Hypersonic missiles severely hinder America’s dominance in intelligence gathering and naval aviation… Even as the American military industrial complex is failing to produce armaments at the speed Ukraine and Israel can consume them, and US carrier groups are becoming exhausted from endless months at sea in the Mediterranean and Indian ocean.
There’s no reason that Iran would do anything as insane as directly targeting a US presidential candidate, when the wars in Gaza and Lebanon are largely ideal for Iran’s purposes, they can arm Hezbollah and alter the Tempo of the conflict at leisure, and pick off israeli assets, often with some deniability…
The cynical Art of Diplomacy is to get other people to die fighting your enemies, and your enemies to exhaust themselves killing people other than your soldiers… And Iran has largely achieved that, even as the Muslim world will praise them for being the only ones to “Stand up” to Israel.
However Israel, Ukraine, the US Deep State, the EU countries, Ambivalent Sunni-Collaborator states like Egypt…. A whole lot of very wealthy very powerful, extremely cornered people, are both deeply threatened by a potential Trump-based geopolitical realignment (even if some are sucking up to him), and are pumping the idea Iran might kill Trump at any second… and that we’d have to go to war with Iran if they did…(just like they’ve always wanted)
S2 Underground (an S-Tier follow) had a great deep dive on this both in text on twitter, and On youtube. His intel wire is what I listen to on my walks most days.
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However there are about 6 or so different ways a Trump assassination could play out. Depending on if it could be plausibly pinned on Iran, poorly pinned, or not pinned at all (as we’ve seen a lot of weird white mental health cases with weird ties to the deep state who just keep shooting at him randomly)… And that would have a whole destabilizing effect if they tried to use it to start a conflict with Iran in which perhaps a majority Americans did not believe Iran to be at fault… Especially if the intervention went badly or required a draft (remember Iran’s hypersonic missiles outrange Carrier based aircraft, and could potentially cripple or sink a 5000 crew Super-carrier).
For my selfish purposes as a RW dissident, I’d actually personally much prefer a US war and draft to fight Iran than Russia… both because such a war is unlikely to result in an escalation to total thermonuclear war with Putin… but also because Americans are far less likely to comply with a draft or accept the mass detainment of dissidents and “Russian Assets” if it’s being done for another mid-east war than for WW3 with Russia or China.
Put crudely that might be the scenario where America exhausts it’s imperial will, treasury, patriotism, and military capability with the least global loss of life and liberty
However domestically a Trump assassination is very likely to result in a bloody civil war before anything of the sort could happen.
This is especially true if it happens BEFORE the election, and if Kamala somehow subsequently wins against J. D. Vance.
There would immediately be the question of what percentage of Trump voters stayed home out of mourning or dispair, or if Vance was just not liked as much as Trump (obviously)… And the assumed wisdom will immediately become that Electoral politics can never change anything… because if it ever gets close the candidate will just be killed.
Remember that Democracies are stable because they redirect all the effort that usually goes into violent conflict for political power into a proxy conflict that exhausts both sides of time, money, and effort.
As soon as it’s made clear the game is rigged, people start buying ammo, training and committing crimes instead of donating time and money.
It’d also pretty immediately Make Assassination Great Again. As now all the people who own high-powered rifles and other weapons, but who’ve not been assassinating their political opponents or IRS agents… Suddenly they start asking why they’re cooperating with a system that has shown it won’t even respect the lives of their greatest representatives in return.
Indeed assassination and terror is rewarded with political results.
Remember that even at the height of the War on Terror NO American president assassinated an American Citizen in America, that we know of (Though Obama pushed that dangerously far killing US Citizens in Yemen).
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However if Vance won, or if Trump were assassinated after what will inevitably be a heavily contested election, no matter who wins or losses… That’s likely to be just as destabilizing.
Imagine if in the midst of the post election 2020 power struggles while supreme court cases and protests and lawfare were playing out with everyone on the edge… Suddenly Trump had been killed? That’d be almost more destabilizing than if he’d been assassinated before the election, because now it’d look as if he’d been purposefully shut-up about the election cheating and all the legal battles had been purposefully thrown into chaos before the confirmation.
There simply is no way for a Trump assassination to not massively discredit all subsequent American elections If he were killed before the election, after winning or after “losing”… Just on the face of it. If an elected president alleges a major election was stolen from him then in the subsequent election was assassinated before the final result and tally could be confirmed…
Is there any circumstance where that wouldn’t discredit the election and risk civil war? The “J’Accuse” has already be thrown and every American has heard it. And enough tens of millions of Americans have believed it enough to make Trump the frontrunner again.
The pinning of any assassination of Trump on Iran strikes me as a long odds prospect in part because he’s already accused the people who he thinks would commit mass fraud and high treason to prevent him from becoming president in 2020, and even his own statements that he’s concerned about Iran assassinating him (probably spoken to appease Netanyahu) wouldn’t change that.
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So what would happen if Trump was assassinated?
What happened last time Trump claimed the election was stolen from him?!
Hundreds of thousands of Patriots descended on Washington DC.
This time it’d probably be millions of Americans descending on the Washington mall and attending rallies and events around the country, many of them with concealed weapons or ones stashed in their cars, and with plenty of would be leaders that could organize them, from political figures like RFK or J.D. Vance to would be militia leaders… but with no Trump to tell them to stand down.
Like Mark Antony in the wake of Caesar’s death these figures could rally or egg on Trump’s millions of supporters, but none of them have any authority to tell them to go home and accept… what? That the greatest voice of their rage and the most polarizing/beloved president of their lifetime can be murdered to keep him from office and they just have to take it?
Any politician or figure saying anything of the sort would quickly lose the respect of the mass middle-American right, and they’d look for someone else… On the contrary someone out there will probably find a way to say EXACTLY the thing that twists the knife, exactly the thing that advances the crowd most towards open rebellion… without actually saying anything that could get him charged with insurrection… Someone who says just enough that people enter the capital or the Whitehouse and refuse to leave for weeks or months(Trump won’t be around to say “We love you, go home.”)… but not quite enough that a court would sign the warrant for his arrest on the outside.
And then he’d take on a major symbolic powerful role, an avatar for the mob’s rage and grief…. And then he’d inevitably either fuck it up or get out over his skis when Biden or some delusional midwit decides to deploy troops or ask for warrants… And then HE’d become a political prisoner or martyr, and the cycle escalates.
(I can absolutely Guarantee you whoever gives the blood and fury funeral oration (literal or metaphorical) will NOT last as long as Mark Antony did, there is no one who combines the military, political, and personal experience to ride THAT Tiger longer than 6 months)
Now as this is happening, remember that the Biden administration is going to remain in power until at least Jan 20th… After that if Trump or Vance gets in they are terrified of them wielding the power of the executive against them.
The Democrat Regime depends on a massive amount of laws, rules, powers, and standards either going uninforced, or selectively enforced.
A Trump Aid allegedly having contacts with the Kremlin gets endless investigations and surveillance, That’s a foreign power! Hillary getting a Dossier made by British Intelligence agents to sabotage her political opponents and defraud FISA courts?
Nothing, apparently British intelligence doesn’t count.
Likewise Israeli ties (but both sides are guilty)… But also Ukrainian ties and corruption.
This is of course beyond the fact that half of DC is being blackmailed by Pedophile networks based New York and LA that have ties to at least Israeli intelligence, and probably several other intel agencies.
And also they’re all corrupt as hell and have been getting pretty explicit quid-pro-quo’s from big Pharma and several other corrupt interest groups… oh and what do you know! a major Trump endorsement and future Trump/Vance appointment is RFK who’s made a name crusading against big pharma and agribusiness.
THe vast majority of DC is guilty… And what’s more they are painfully aware they’re guilty.
Hell General Milley committed explicit treason and leaked backdoor insubordinate assurances to China that he could contain the sitting president. (Hangable), and allegedly fears a court-martial.
Beyond this the entire Democrat/deep state electoral strategy amounts to one long attempt to prevent Immigration law from being enforced so that they can get tens of millions of Illegal aliens and “migrants” into the country… Amnesty them onto a path to citizenship as soon as possible, or leave the elections so poorly secured they manage to vote anyway… That’s how they think they can get around a native white population that increasingly hates them and views them as the enemy.
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The thing is whether its their personal crimes, or the mass systematic criminal entry at the border, all of this depends on them being in a position to prevent the law from being enforced as written. All it takes is one republican administration they don’t control with a few agencies, or even cooperative state governments, and budget, and the law could simply be enforced against the deep state.
Which doesn’t take too much to find buried in all the existing agency budgets and states that are already fighting to enforce these laws, and could probably do it themselves if not for the federal government tying their hands.
A Trump or Vance presidency could easily empower states or even directly deputize American volunteers to aid mass deportation efforts, and they could certainly empower states to investigate the crimes of DC Bureaucrats and politicians… Though with the right appointments they could probably get various federal agencies doing it.
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So how does the Biden Regime prevent the mass investigation, arrests, and lawfare against of their Politicians, Bureaucrats, and core voting demographic the second they leave office?
Mass riots and civil unrest!
What you forgot the summer of Floyd!?
The US Deomcrat-ic, bureaucratic, and NGO regime is nothing if not skilled at creating riots and massive amounts of crime to try and cripple political, economic, and social activity by their political enemies… Selective failure to Enforce and Selective Hyper Enforcement are the sword and shield by which the regime wages war on white Middle Americans.
And in the event of a Trump or Vance election mass rioting will begin, in American cities, and probably widespread rape and murder by the millions of violent foreign migrants imported and strategically shipped across the country to strategic regions and municipalities.
(There’s probably no way to prevent that even if the Regime cared to, the people they imported are from countries where rioting, and killing people in riots is simply not the hard distinction Americans perceive it to be, you’d have a hard time explaining to many Haitian and central American illegals why looting and burning shops would be fine but killing the shop owners and raping their wives and daughters wouldn’t be)
You don’t import 7.2 million fighting age males and pay for their room and board unless you expect to be able to use them for fighting.
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This has been the strategy of “Civil Rights” and “Civil Disobedience” going on 70 years now in the US. A “Non-Violent” organized political party or movement… MLK, civil rights lawyers, the NAACP, Black lives matter, etc. Starts some mass “protest” with heavily organized “peaceful” and openly legally funded donations and billionaire, corporate, international communist (and Zionist) backing… And then, merely by coincidence, everywhere their “peaceful protests” occur: rioting, racial and ethnic violence, looting, the burning of small businesses and the homes of class enemies of the communists and progressive regime. Invariably followed by a permanent collapse in the public safety, school quality, and levels of civic corruption such that any productive or white members of the region are forced to flee and lose all their home and business equity in the area… or slowly see their daughters raped, and sons beaten into comas by “senseless” “Random” violence. As of course the poor retirees who can’t start again are left to be robbed, often raped themselves, or simply killed, in “senseless'“ “Robberies” across years of “Social decay”
Ethnic cleansing and class liquidation via “Peaceful Protest” and its consequences:
We saw this in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s… And we saw it in 2020.
And if Kamala loses I expect plans are already in place to turn some Haitian serial rapist into the next George Floyd and to have months of “Migrant Lives Matter” protests and ethnic cleansing meant to break US State and Federal capacity to deport, the White American will to deport, and the Trump/Vance administration’s political capital to deport…
Expect “responcible” “conservative” “civil rights aware” Republicans (who somehow all signed the patriot act and don’t give a damn about civil rights at any other moment) to all rally for the sake of “unity” and “tolerance” to “persuade” Trump/Vance to show mercy to the poor Haitian rapists who’ve been illegally admitted to the country… and advocate a path to amnesty.
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The only thing is 2020 just happened, and Elon has taken over X and largely broken left regime’s censorship containment systems… Sure they control most of social media and the news stations… but the number of people siloed entirely in legacy media or self selected regime echo chambers are collapsing.
Hell in Jan 2021 Twitter and Social Media all banned THE SITTING PRESIDENT… Whereas now Elon is backing Trump all in.
In just 4 years, the censorship information ecosystem has collapsed that much…
That MAKES THINGS REALLY UNPREDICTABLE if there are mass protests.
Suddenly all the people who were banned for calling for violent resistance to BLM riots or defending private homes and businesses with lethal force… In 2020 I remember Twitter personalities and Subreddits went down left and right for advocating the existing castle doctrine in most states… The New York Times somehow mistakenly filed one opinion piece, by A SITTING US SENATOR, calling for the use of the national guard to put down the BLM riots… The opinion editor was fired and the Paper rans apologies, so total was the information enforcement.
But now… Not only is the information cordon broken, but everyone spent 4 years routing around the censorship, and mentally preparing for civic violence.
When migrant rioting and violence occurs demanding guaranteed paths to citizenship, continued benefits indefinitely, and an end to deportation, there will very quickly be organic social media consensus on wide parts of the America right to resist these riots and attacks with extreme amounts of lethal vigilante violence.
Indeed the consensus already exists in utero, as basically everyone at the 25th percentile of right wing politics and beyond agrees the only thing Kyle Rittenhouse did wrong was surrendering to the police and not wearing a mask.
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What happens then? Remember the optimal time to do this would be during Biden’s lame duck session, whilst the Democrats and Deep State still have maximum control over the federal bureaucracy, military, and letter Agencies.
You can bet they’d downplay and outright lie about the Haitian and Venezuelan gangs committing ethnic cleansing, kidnapping, human trafficking, and establishing territorial extortion rackets in the midst of this chaos… Just as they’re lying now about it happening on a smaller scale right now in Aurora and Ohio….
But the middle and white Americans who fight back or use lethal force to defend their property? They’ll be immediately branded insurrectionists, racists, the Klan… And terrorists.
And then the Letter agencies ( and select portions of the military, probably Special Forces) would be deployed to Put down the “terrorists”… They would gladly use Seal Team Six to kill Americans defending their lives and property, no different than how they were regularly used in Iraq to aid various ethnic factions and ethnic cleansers in their civil war.
And now at this point Optics Cucks will try to tell you “You see that’s their plan! THEY WANT YOU TO RESIST! What you’ve got to do is just role over and take it, or else you’re giving them what they want, and you’ll scare the moderate voter.” And these people should be held in contempt in all scenarios.
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THE POINT of extreme escalation is to force your enemy to to escalate in turn and escape a local limited engagement you are losing… The thing is, for the victim of such an escalation, escalating in turn is still the optimal move. You may have been winning the card game when your losing opponent dived across the table and started strangling you, he may want to substitute out a card game he’s guaranteed to lose for a fight to the death he might win… BUT YOU HAVE TO FIGHT HIM. You don’t have the choice between continuing the card game and fighting, your choice is between fighting and dying. THAT’S WHY IT’S CALLED ESCALATION! because the new game is more extreme and necessarily overpowering of the lesser game.
This is why he chose a fight to the death instead of saying “Let’s play checkers instead”, you can politely refuse Checkers, you can’t politely refuse him diving across the table. You HAVE to eye-gauge and try to stab him with your broken beer bottle now, or you just die.
And the Deep State is convinced that Red America will just roll over and die if they push hard enough, this was the point of Russia-gate, this was the point of Lockdowns, this was the point of the Summer of Floyd, this was the point of importing millions of illegals just in the past few years, this was the point of trying to convict Trump.
The Psychology of the Regime
White middle American Rural Private sector Maga supporters lead asymmetrically different lives from the Democrats who populate the deep state of DC (and DC is over 90% Democrat, This is indeed the core demographic of White and “White” Democrat voters)
And every one of these differences those Blue Hyper Political power seekers perceive as weakness.
Red Americans don’t network to influence peddle and get corrupt deals out of politics? Clearly it’s because they’re just the worst influence peddlers. bottom of the rankings.
They don’t want to live in cities and seek out more influential public sector jobs? Clearly it’s because they can’t compete and they’re effectively permanently exiled rural yokels doomed to only come into the city to do plumbing and other distasteful work.
They won’t vote for more benefits and ethnic carve outs for themselves? Clearly it’s because they’re the worst faction who CAN’T win anything for themselves that way.
Every virtue, skill or value of the hard working middle American, in the DC Bureaucrat’s world is perceived as weakness.
DC Bureaucrats if they were to listen to Stan Rogers “The Idiot” (lyrics) would conclude that he is actually an Idiot… All the virtue and strength in refusing the government dole, to instead move across country and start over developing new skills on a hard frontier doing manual work. That’s lost on them. Such a figure is a dumb clinger to people like Obama and the academics turned bureaucrats who aspire to be him. A smart person would stay on the government dole, and then use the free time to become a political activist and influence peddle… They might be able to become a government official if they do it long enough!
And that’s the reason that no matter how hard they’ve tried across countless efforts: Russia-Gate, Lockdowns, The summer of Floyd, censorship, “Anti-extremism”, the Trump trials… None of those efforts have worked and broken the rubes’ resistance, and they’re consistently SHOCKED it doesn’t work.
So if/when the Migrant riots start at a Trump victory… the DC Bureaucrats will genuinely expect this to be the thing that breaks the Yokels, that they’ll back down, the migrants will get citizenship, and then Trump will be forced to accept a completely gimped presidency if not resign from his victory entirely. This being done, all subsequent elections will have the correct results, “Our Democracy” will be safe… And then when white America (surprisingly) resist this, they’ll salivate that the rubes had just enough fight in them, probably already exhausted, that now they can deploy special forces and the letter agencies after them, declare a national emergency, and probably use some obviously true statement of Trump’s to try to label him an insurrectionist in open rebellion who can’t be confirmed, or needs to be impeached (can’t have him going down in history as a winner even if his presidency is gimped, he has to leave crippled and shamed like Nixon).
Of course they’d find that surprising resistance is actually enough to rip the country apart, that their delusions are in fact delusional, and America has more guns that people, 80% of which are in the hands of their enemy.
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Why do I think the regime would be so cavalier and stupid?
Remember everyone in DC who is on the Epstein lists or who has accepted kickbacks from Ukraine, or any number of a thousand corruptions and treasons… They’re all aware of their own crimes, and they’ve all been screeching at each-other for EIGHT YEARS, convinced Trump is actually going to prosecute all of them if given one unencumbered year in the presidency.
And they’ve spent enough time in DC that they can’t actually see the difference between government processes and actual power/reality.
For them the possibility they could just overawe or disqualify Trump or force an escalation seems to be individually in their interests compared to the threat of him being the "Dictator" they fear and he’s jokingly threatened “Only on day one”, whilst the possibility of the Rubes resisting them the second they start “bending” the rules too publically… Well They don’t have a department?! And even if they did a Democrat or Neocon would be in charge.
Of course the actual odds Trump drains the swamp and prosecutes them instead of trying to make “A big Beautiful deal” whereby everyone will finally have to admit he’s a “winner” that may strike ME as a very remote possibility, 5-10%… But for the delusional, with guilty consciences, looking at their social status and narrative control slipping, in the greatest and most public rejection of an elite since at least the fall of the USSR…(They banned a sitting President from Twitter, tried to prosecute him, branded him an insurectionist and terrorist, and now America’s probably going to reelect him) the risk of having their delusions stripped away almost certainly feels indistinguishable from facing a MAGA Terror and guillotines on the Washington Mall.
And the fact that Trump as president probably wouldn’t be able to do that, but Trump as Martyr to the people and republic probably could… That’s almost certainly now lost on them.
The delusional childless girlbosses will push for that escalation on the assumption US government power is limitless, the same way they pushed for no-compromise escalation against Putin in the Ukraine war… Indeed they perceive Trump and Putin as basically the same man, the weird psycho-sexual displacement of their despised fathers, the more competent old white bosses they always resented, and the older men who’s judgement of their sexuality they always kinda knew to be correct (and the older men who sexually abused them)… The combined Neuroses of the Aging cat-ladies, resentful mixed-race diversity hires, and gay bottoms who now run half of DC won’t let Trump become president without throwing everything at him… and the few non-delusional but truly guilty corrupt Generals and Agency Secretaries would probably fan that flame.
And they’ve set themselves up that they won’t ever have to face the fact they’re doing it. They’ll just be supporting the modern civil rights movement when the invading army they let in starts rioting “No person is illegal” “Rioting is the voice of the unheard”, and then siding with law and order when they dispatch the letter agencies and special forces with shoot to kill orders “Vigilante violence can NEVER be tolerated” “Criminals and traitors must be held accountable”, and then they’ll see themselves as heroes on the ramparts when it does go to open conflict: “Nazis are trying to overthrow the republic of course we’ll shoot then, that’s what Karl and Rosa… I mean Captain America would do!”
Even when they do everything to disqualify the winner of a US presidential election for the first time in history, after he’s won, they’ll convince themselves they’re just following the process and doing what the 14th Amendment intended.
They’re civil rights heroes. Finally ending the rule of white supremacy that has prevented the true constitutional order from being implemented (everyone knows the first 10 don’t count but the 14th that lay dormant for 80 years that’s sacrosanct).
And of course the fact that they’ve started a civil war and the US military would be ripping apart at the seams with desertion would be almost an afterthought to them…Every individual step will just seem obviously correct, “what a good person does” “being on the right side of history”.
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If by contrast Kamala somehow wins a close race…
the margin will be obviously due to insecure mail-in ballots, illegals voting, and all the rest. At this point the Democrats don’t even have to ballot-harvest or do any of the obvious big cheating that we saw in 2020 to get 20, 50, and even 100,000 extra votes in swing states just due to people being registered who shouldn’t be and being empowered to vote either in person or remotely without ID. Already millions of Illegals who’ve entered the country in the past 4 years have been found on and purged from voter rolls in various red states, whereas in blue states and swing states which have done EVERYTHING to prevent ANY identification requirements for voting, it’s unthinkable that many thousands of these don’t wind up voting without obstruction… Even out of pure ignorance that they can’t.
Likewise various surveys have revealed hundreds of thousands of people who’ll admit on surveys to having voted for someone else, whether an adult child who has moved away, an impaired relative, a family member who wasn’t going to vote, or a deceased relative who non-the-less had a mail in ballot sent to them.
This almost entirely favours Democrats, US politics being a hard division between engaged, middle-class net taxpayers who would have been the only people voting in earlier iterations of the republic voting republican, and low information, low intentionality, low income, low conscientiousness, and even consciousness voters voting for the Democrats…
Responcible citizens vs. the merely living (and sometimes not even)
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And of course fairly open ballot harvesting with individual political operatives sometime harvesting thousands of ballots are quite common in blue cities.
So basically anything less than a Harris landslide in which she carries swing states by MILLIONS of votes will be immediately suspected, called fraud, and Trump will have no incentive to back down this time, as he isn’t going to run again in 2028.
Indeed Both the Trump and Deep State factions have been paranoidly wargaming just such a scenario that levels of escalation it took 3 months to reach in 2020 would probably happen immediately.
If the election’s close and polling stations suddenly stop counting election night the way they did in 2020, in exactly the precincts they needed to carry, I could honestly see ordinary Republicans burning them down or unleashing gun fire on the poll worker in an attempt to take the corrupt polling station out of the election entirely.
The voting’s already over, the counting’s all that matters. Who gives a damn whether the news covers the violence that erupts favourable or if it scares the moderates?
This is the logic that will play out on both sides:
The very second voting closes there’s not reason not to be as beastly and ruthless in the legal and illegal fighting as possible.
Public Opinion and the popular will of your fellow American is everything on November 5th, on November 6th killing thousands wouldn’t affect the vote that already happened… or rather it might, in your favour, If that results in a different physical count of the paper ballots (already there are scattered stories of ballot drop boxes being burnt).
Oh and Also Israel is Going to Strike Iran, and Ukraine might do something insane
It looked like Israel was going to launch a major reprisal strike for Iran’s Oct 1st strike before the election… however a major Pentagon Leak has seemingly delayed the attack to later in November, allegedly.
However I wouldn’t be shocked if Netanyahu and Israel push for a strike prior to election day, as the power of the Israel lobby is tied up with their election funding and the votes they command. Their power is at a Maximum mere weeks to the Election… And, immediately after the election they’re at their weakest. With 2 years until another election in which they might punish or dangle funding, and pottentially with a lame duck president and congress who’d let their secret true feelings out
Indeed there’s lots of speculation the Pentagon Leak may have been purposefully allows to happen to prevent Israel from trapping the Biden Administration prior to the election.
That by striking before the election (hard enough to force a nearly Immediate Iran retaliation) they could force Biden into an escalation… whereas after, if ever the American government was going to covertly or overtly punish Israel by withholding support or playing hardball negotiations, it’d be then.
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Likewise probably the last play Ukraine has is to force some massive escalation that risks their immediate defeat… That way if Biden wants to avoid losing a war RIGHT BEFORE ELECTION DAY, the US would have to intervene by sending uniformed NATO troops into the country.
This is part of the reason Russia’s lines have remained shockingly stagnant the past few months despite reports of Ukrainian formation already being beyond the breaking point… This sensitive window before the election is the only time the US would actually escalate or do something risky on that front, whereas, Putin’s hoping, during Biden’s lame duck session with a president who isn’t running again, that’d be the most likely time for NATO to cut their losses, accept a defeat, and treat it like Afghanistan or any of the other wars the US just walked away from.
By contrast China wouldn’t touch the Taiwan Straits this year.
Right now Russia, Iran, and China are all watching and hoping one of the others will be drawn into a hot war with America and then the rest will have the opening to settle their regional scores.
WW3, or a less dramatic world crisis is going to be fought along those 3 lines: Eastern Europe, Middle East, and South China Sea… and like a pack of Hyenas or cowardly toughs all 3 of America’s enemies know that whoever winds up in the scrap first is going to take the brunt of America’s conventional firepower and manuevering… Whereas whoever fights America last will probably be able to largely take whatever they want with a minimal fight.
China Really wants the US to Invade Iran, and then get into an exausting continuation war in eastern europe that Zaps their imperial will… Then when China invades Taiwan six months later the Us public and Military might just say “Ugh… We can probably make due without it”
Likewise Russia would love it The US invaded Iran and then they could somehow Maneuver it so they fight China next…
And Iran is desperately trying to keep things from escalating with them as long as possible because they know Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are all doing everything they can to make them the cannon fodder that’s pushed through the doorway first. And even the US military industrial complex is pushing that war since they can sell it as Iran being the easy war to fight, and “They don’t have nukes, and we can stop them from ever getting them” whereas Russia or China obviously have much worse risk for escalation.
Iran basically knows that it’ll take perfect play and a good amount of luck to avoid losing hundreds of thousands if not millions of their people in a major regional war… and that a good chunk of their ability to do that is by binding themselves to Russia and getting As much of the Russian arsenal of weapons and deterrents as they can.
And this dynamic repeats in Micro with Iran, Hezzbollah, and Hamas vs. Israel… but even more complex.
The Dynamics resemble WW1 Alliance logic, but all resting on a microscopic series of wars that also have their own WW1 alliance logic… That’s not stable.
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But for Ameircan purposes, the thing that really matters isn’t even Israel but the 10s of thousands of American troops in Theatre: In Iraq, Qatar, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel (each of the THAADs sent there have dozens of troops attached) and probably a half dozen other countries I’m forgetting… Who to a one are in range of Iranian Missiles, in range of regional militias of every stripe… And are stationed in tiny outposts of a few dozen to few hundred… Basically explicitly to carry out minor activities to harrass and annoy Iran and it’s proxies… but more important to get slaughtered and die should a regional war escalate in the hopes that instead of the onesy-twosy casualties Americans are used to from their forward deployed troops, that a few hundred or even thousand might die and that’d give the US government would have the political impetuous and popular support to attack Iran and settle scores.
This is the logic of “Tripwire forces” Guarantees mean little when everyone know the US is driven by domestic political concerns, so you disperse boys and girls from Iowa so that any assault on those guarantees generate American bodies that would drive US politics.
And America has 10 to 20 thousand such troops between Israel and Iran.
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Would this work though?
War with Iran is actually a kindof tricky prospect: Whatifalthist did a fairly comprehensive summary of why the US would struggle to topple the Iranian regime with simple conventional arms… You can’t just drive from Kuwait to Tehran the way you could with Baghdad.
It’s a vastly more functional country of a different racial ethnicity, with a vastly more protective and defensible terrain, and a vastly larger population of 90 million.
And a huge chunk of the world’s oil goes through this region.
It’s very likely any conventional war with Iran would result in inconclusive outcomes and the US military needing to Institute a draft to get the necessary manpower… Expect the general public to despise this and probably resist “What were our troops doing there?” “I’m not dying for Israel” “You people destroyed our military with wokeness and now you want to draft white guys?” “Why aren’t the fat and black kids getting drafted?” “Draft the feminists, they’re equal now”.
Meanwhile an Air War is likely becoming impossible because Russia is supplying anti-air systems and fighter crews that’d render US carrier based airpower down to a point where it doesn’t have the superiority to carry out endless airstrikes.
This would leave… Nuclear weapons? The first first strike against a non-nuclear Nation since 1945, even as they’re being actively backed by Russia with Russian advisors on the ground!?
That’s a recipe for mass nuclear proliferation, Iran acquiring nukes almost immediately… and probably World War 3 or, barring that, escalation of the baseline of conflict to a point where basically all wars going forward involve nuclear exchange in some manner. The end of the post 45 world age.
In Conclusion: Buy Guns, you’re fucked!
How this would play out after the next 6 months as opposed to the next 3 would be a textbook length piece because we’d have to go into all the forking paths and how all the possible chaotic outcomes could play out.
Remember many of these are related. There are Muslim extremist groups that have smuggled themselves into the Us via the open southern border… What would those do during migrant riots? What would those do during a war with Iran? Iran might have kill teams ready to assassinate american figures in the event DC tries decapitation strikes against Iranian leadership… Likewise the Russian Mafia has been fairly well integrated with the Russian security state, and there could be lots of assets in the event things escalate in eastern Europe.
Historically one of the maneuvers domestically unstable regimes do is launch a foreign war in the hopes the Wartime security measures, sudden outpourings of patriotism, opportunity to spend lots of money, and maybe even a glorious victory will allow them to paper over all their domestic issues… This works maybe a quarter of the time… Usually they just destabilize themselves… but arguably that’s what the west did when they maneuvered the Ukraine war in 2022, and I’d suspect they’d do it, they certainly hate white men enough to want to see them drafted. So not only could a foreign war cause domestic instability, domestic instability would likely cause a foreign war.
All of these factors can chain-react very quickly.
America and its global position right now is gallons of gasoline in open drums, resting on a floor of dry kindling, in a building with bad wiring, a gas leak, and an unattended stove about to boil over and catch fire… Could the cook return and handle the stove? Might the wiring last the night? Sure… Might someone inadvertently light a cigarette?!
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When Ukraine fell to a color revolution in 2014, one of the major things that escalated it revolution and escalated foreign intervention was Sniper fire that killed Euromaidan protestors. The thing is, while this was attributed to the old Ukrainian Government at the time, there’s always been theories and debates that The CIA or Ukrainian Ultranationalists might have been the real shooters, and purposefully killed those people, fighting on the side of America and the EU, so as to make the protests escalate and make the Ukrainian regime fall.
People have also speculated around things like this when it comes to the the Arab Spring and the fall of various Egyptian governments, or the Syrian protests that led to that civil war….
The thing is EVERYONE knows this trick, even if no one agrees when it has been used. And I’m convinced that we were one foreign sniper team, or crazed gunman, or aggressive current or former CIA Officer away from the same thing happening in the Summer of Floyd… A dozen random rifle shots, from a hidden position, hitting and killing protestors.. and a nation is destabilized. under $100 in ammo, 20k in equipment, and a single person’s rifle skill… And history just changed.
…If Trump had gotten to far ahead in the 2020 polls that might have happened.
Hell, an especially ruthless day trader could probably make million doing it just ot move their own bets.
And there are hundreds of things like this, where a lone person or small team could light one of those sparks at exactly the wrong moment. Right now everyone is inhaling and waiting to see how the election will play out… Something could happen before that, indeed it looked like Israel was going to strike before that, and any Trump assassin would probably want to do so before he can be elected and lock his people into power… but after the election? Suddenly it goes from individual factions looking to move history to everyone having brief opening to either start their war, prevent their defeat, secure their victory…
We sit atop an unstable system threatening to fall, and november 5th it gets shaken to it’s core.
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Everything that is happening right now has had a historical precedent, including the assassination of a president, inflation, migration crisis, ethnic conflict, pandemics, war abroad, just in the USA. You know what ended up happening? Jackshit. A 19th century american would find this essay pathetic.
You are mostly a brilliant writer, but these "its going down" articles are born out of sheer historical ignorance.
I stumbled on to Rudyard Lynch a few months ago. I was blown away by his acumen and knowledge of history.
Here’s what I think might be coming our way: I think they are going to remove KH. By remove I don’t mean replace. This will happen 1-5 days out or quite possibly the day of if possible.
This act will be blamed on Trump supporters and the election will be put on hold indefinitely. Small waves of violence will then occur in rural communities (Trump area) most likely perpetrated by militant migrants and/or blacks as payback for the demise of Harris.
Martial law with them be implemented…..do the math from there.