61 Comments

Slightly sensationalistic but I agree overall. The reason Israel attacked the consulate was to test the waters and see how America would react—basically to see if they could count on their support. America revealed that they were not at all comfortable with escalating, and basically told Israel that they would be on their own if they went down this path.

At the same time, the Americans had to negotiate an Iranian response that would maintain the Iranian domestic credibility without causing Israel to overreact too dramatically. And this is exactly what happened. Iranian military officials met with the CIA to determine the magnitude of their response, with the parameter being no civilian casualties.

Contrary to neocon propaganda, Iran is actually a very cautious state and it desperately wants to avoid an all out war too, so they were content to not go full TKD on Israel.

After the Iranian response, the ball was back in Israel’s court, and the Americans were hoping that they wouldn’t respond. But they did, and even though it seems like actual damage was minimal, now Iran will be forced to respond in turn.

So basically Israel kicked off a game of chicken in a bid to get the U.S. to step up its involvement in the Middle East, but it backfired and now both Israel and Iran will both be stuck escalating while neither of them really want too. But, their credibility will be at stake if one of them decides not to respond. This could become a very awkward situation where Israel and Iran just fire missiles at each other once a week that don’t really have a military effect but just to keep up appearances. But Israel is clearly the more erratic actor in this case, so if anyone will escalate, it will be Israel, and if anyone backs down, it will be Iran.

One final note, Israel doesn’t really have the capability to nuke the U.S., so if you’re American you’ll probably be fine if they unleash the Samson Option.

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How long is Israel expected to tolerate a regime constantly stirring up terror organizations with the express purpose of the genocide of the Israeli people? Iran fucked around, now they find out.

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How long is Iran expected to tolerate a regime constantly stirring up terror organizations with the express purpose of the genocide of the Palestinian people? Israel fucked around, now they find out.

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There is no "Palestinian" people. It's like talking about "East Germans" or "North Koreans" as a separate ethnicity. They're West Jordanians who kept picking wars, and then losing them, and being pissed off about how that turned out.

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There are Arab people from Palestine, in other words Palestinians. And they keep “picking wars” (really just this, the Intifadas, and the 1948 war) because their choices are either that, or the loss of their homeland to foreign invaders.

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You mean like... The Ottomans? Or the British and French? There has never been an independent "Palestine". Hell, it's a Greek name imposed on the area by the Romans after they sacked Israel and forcibly renamed it as a sign of their defeat of Jerusalem.

Which is the story of everywhere on the planet. They could have just lived with what they had, but they fucked around and found out. No idea if you're American, but if you are... you live in a place that was taken away just as surely as Israel has done. So do I. I decided long ago to not really sweat that. The people of Israel are significantly more in line with my own views of civilization. If the West Jordanians hadn't started the fight, they'd not have experienced the Nakba, and if they hadn't *kept* picking fights they'd have a lot more space than they do now, and even now, with the space they have and the billions that have come in to Gaza as aid, they could be running a vastly high priced resort, and pulling in money hand over fist. See also: Indian Casinos, which generally happen in places with a *lot* less to work with than miles and miles of Mediterranean coastline and are still stupidly successful.

They've chosen to wallow in victimhood and plots of murder. There are five times as many of them as there were in 1948. If it truly is genocide, it's the worst run genocide in history. Yes, it sucks to get invaded and lose. And then to fight more wars and lose. But that is literally the entire history of the human species on planet Earth in terms of who lives anywhere at this point, going back far enough. The options are to move forward with what you have, or to keep being pissed off about it and having life suck.

Of course, in the end, it worked for the Jews. Maybe the "Palestinians" just need to wait another two thousand years.

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"They've chosen to wallow in victimhood and plots of murder. "

This coming from a jew is the absolute peak of irony.

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Why the fuck do all of you idiots think I'm Jewish? Are you truly so antisemitic that you are incapable of imagining that nobody other than a Jew might possibly not hate Jews? I'm an American, whose ancestors have been in this country long enough to have fought on the right side in the Revolutionary War. Mostly Scots, Irish, Norse, and German. Raised Christian in a long, long line of Christians. If there are any Jews in my ancestry anywhere, it's sufficiently well hidden that my genealogy obsessed stepmother has found no trace of it. It's all Northern European, all the way back.

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I'm not even sure you can call it "picking wars," they're mostly just responding to invasion.

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False. There are a recognisable racial and cultural group native to that area going back to antiquity.

If anything the jews have far less claim to being a congruant people.

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> There is no "Palestinian" people.

Not for much longer, anyway.

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Israel has no interest in genocide. If they were aiming to genocide Palestinian Arabs, the largest non-Jewish group of Israeli citizens wouldn't be of Arab descent.

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Their goal is more ethnic cleansing than genocide

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So they graciously let a tiny number of Palestinians stay (for now) in their own homeland, and we're supposed to be impressed?

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Ever asked yourself what the common denominator is in all that? The one group who must never be criticized, no matter their actions? Why did they attack the USS Cole? Why are their citizens allowed to not only hold power in our government but wear the uniform of a foreign military while doing it?

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Yes, it's amazing how the jews are always surrounded by people who hate them for no reason and have to cry out as they preemtively strike them in self defence.

It's never their fault though.

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It is war. Deception and Censorship are well won tools. I always wait 48 hours before reaching conclusions. In the meantime, stay away from crowds.

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Still upset about how hilariously inaccurate your first prediction about the war turned out to be.

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They did lose the Urban war.

That’s why they had to pull back and ceasefire so many times. Then just bomb Civilians. Ots why they’re forced to go into Raffa now instead of what they wanted to which was hold northern Gaza level it and resettle the area.

They’ve pulled out of all but the edges of northern Gaza, Hamas even by Israel’s own numbers in 75% intact (and probably closer to 90). The tunnels are still intact, and Hamas is equipped to maintain the siege another year+ whilst israel gets drawn into regional wars and loses all international recognition.

“But you said it was genocide ? That they were wantonly killing civillians. LOL.”

Yes from the AIR.

Operation Rolling thunder in vietnam dropped 10x the number of bombs, was also genocide, and also did NOTHING to break the vietcong in the Cu Chi tunnels.

Its as if NO ONE has learnt the lessons of 200 years of Guerrilla warfare: NOT A SINGLE ARMY IN HUMAN HISTORY HAS DEFEATED AN ENEMY FORCE BY ATTACKING CIVILIANS.

You just harden enemy resolve

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> That’s why they had to pull back and ceasefire so many times.

And yet it's the Arabs constantly demanding a ceasefire.

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Ceasefire serves Hamas since they’re defenders. Attackers have to take and hold.Every ceasefire is a Hamas victory. This gets really obvious if you visualize it as a castle or trench under assault and then the attackers and the attack and fall back with the defenders still in the keep/trench

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Castles were historically broken through sieges, and Israel has a tight stranglehold on stuff coming in… at least when they aren’t forced to let humanitarian aid through.

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What was the first prediction?

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That the invasion of Gaza would turn into an urban warfare quagmire.

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Remember the "analysis" about Israel not having the means to drop sufficient tonnage to destroy Gaza?

Fine line between analysis and emotional speculation.

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They didn’t lol, they almost ran out of ammunition just a few weeks into their assault, but they have been buoyed by emergency deliveries by the U.S.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2024-03-24/ty-article/a-huge-mess-in-gaza-idf-used-70-year-old-munitions-and-shells-intended-for-training/0000018e-5db4-d4b2-afcf-dfb626a90000

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Oh yeah, instead it was just out and out genocide

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Where by "genocide" you mean "don't let the US state department set the rules of engagement".

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Not sure how you could infer that. Here is the definition of the term : genocide, the deliberate and systematic destruction of a group of people because of their ethnicity, nationality, religion, or race.

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> Not sure how you could infer that.

Based on how the term "genocide" tends to be used in practice.

> Here is the definition of the term : genocide, the deliberate and systematic destruction of a group of people because of their ethnicity, nationality, religion, or race.

Which is not what's happening in Gaza.

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If you are interested, I wrote about the red heifer matter at L5News.substack.com

The current Israeli govt would also suitcase nuke Brussels and a few other German speaking cities. The nukes are already in place imo

I am not interested in the continuation of the current regime in Israel. I am not interested in the continuation of this fourth term of Obama. I will continue to oppose the military draft, which I am not sure you oppose based on your comments. Do you really prefer millions of dead Americans to a change in the Israel govt?

No, I won't fight to prevent Israel from becoming a Zimbabwe or a South Africa. They made their bed and they can lay down in it.

Do you like the current American govt? How much psychopathy are you willing to accept? How many more children are you willing to have Hillary and Huma torture to death? I would be curious to better understand your views.

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Smedley Butler for president!

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He's good, but if we're drafting from the other side of the veil I'd prefer Leander Spooner

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My only complaint is that unlike SA or Rhodesia, the vast majority of israelis have foreign passports and can relocate at will. Even if they lose we'll have to host them all.

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Lunatics are trying to drag us into the next world war. Actually certifiable lunatics who believe God wants animals burnt alive and sacrificed to Him. These people are insane.

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The heifers won't be burnt alive. That's actually against Jewish law. They're slaughtered before they're burnt.

And for a sacrifice like this, they're going to dot all the issues and cross all the t's.

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I've heard conflicting things about the treatment of the heifers, not sure what's true. Doesn't change anything, we're still talking about people who believe that animal sacrifices are necessary to facilitate peace on earth. And that's grade A lunacy.

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Animal sacrifice is a reality of life on earth. Your continued existence depends on hundreds of animals being sacrificed every day. The difference between us and our ancestors is that they acknowledged it as a sacrifice and treated it as such.

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... and sneaked the Nοαhidε Laωs into US legislation via the Education Day Act in 1991. They can now legally κill Christiαns in the US.

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I think I would have sit this one out. This post won’t age well. You made predictions on top of predictions in a war game you’re playing in your own head. I’d say almost zero of what you suggest will actually happen.

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If you're not wargaming you're not playing.

There's nothing worthwhile in holding your tongue and reserving your judgement if you're mute, especially to yourself.

Would you rather listen to the person who "reserves judgment" and hedges and maintains "respectability" and gives you no info? Or the person who's wargaming everything out plays through lots of scenarios that never go down because another move and another game got played... but is actually theorizing the dynamics?

I know I respect Alex Jones and Geopolitics youtubers vastly more than CNN or 90% of academics... even though 80-90% of their predictions are wrong, because they're the only ones who actually get predictions right. everyone else hedges and protects their pathetic legacy institution reputations.

Jones was the only figure who predicted vaccine passports and he did it in 2014.

.

I could delete this because I got it wrong and believed false legacy media reporting that happening had begun... or i can leave it up and 6 months from now when something similar happens and it does play out that way people will say "Oh Kulak predicted this dynamic all the way back in April"

I'm an anonymous twitter catgirl who writes about banned books by terrorist, Feral BPD Alpha-Widows, motorcycle warlords, and 4Chan Hate Movies.

People aren't reading me to hear hedges and evasions and equivocations they can hear from the talking heads on CNN

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Thank you for taking the time to reply. I’d suggest there are enough actual dangers in the world really happening right now… and many you write on - without creating fantasy wars to stir meaningless debate. (Not to mention dragging out the furthest extremes of your readership.) But obviously you’ve built your audience without my help, so doubtful you suddenly find my insight valuable.

Free advice is worth every penny! But I offer double your money back if not completely satisfied!

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Since October I have had a scenario in my head , like a computer game , that includes an American carrier that suddenly suffers catastrophic damage due to explosion. There are many casualties. This is blamed on a weapon from Iran , obtained from Russia. In truth , the carrier sailed from port with a secret deep inside. A bomb that could be triggered via satellite signal . The U.S. then enters into open war with Iran and Russia. I know if I can think of that , many others already have.

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I'm not dying for pedophiles. They can die for their way of life.

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Nah, Iran just declared there were no attacks after all

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Well. Shit.

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What a moralist you are on the question of Israel! The weak suffer what they must, my friend...isn't that the pagan view? "International law" LOL what would pagan Romans think of that? Did they follow the principle of "proportionate response" LMAO. Truly, you illustrate Nietzsche's point that the ghost of the Christian God would linger, even for those who claim to reject him.

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If israel was being a Nietzschean conqueror state out there in the wilds I'd agree...

Except they aren't, they've received 300 billion in foreign aid from the US and run entire industries off a slave morality cult of Holocaust worship, and are trying to blackmail others into fighting their wars for them.

The Nietzschean ubermensch don't plead victim and beg that you spare their feelings and pay for their defense. Nietzschean ubermensch are supposed to have dignity and pride.

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Impossible to read you and not love you.

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Hyperbolic take.

Equal amounts of vitriol and panic mongering.

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israeli foreign policy is hyperbole.

As for panic mongering... who's panicked? This has all been a long time coming. Personally I welcome it.

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I guess the Christian Zionists (if any genuine ones really exist) backed the right Horsemen to bring on the Apocalypse.

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At least if nuclear goeterdammerung hits, it'll be quick for me.

Oh wait, Iran doesn't have nukes.

I suppose this might be remarkably short, then.

Ah, crap. Tapioca Joe is on the throne.

Welp, we're fucked.

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I suspect what's going on behind the scenes here is that the Rothschilds are getting tired of Bibi's antics and have ordered him to stand down, but he's pushing ahead with the "prophecy" so now all the Rothschild western-democracy franchises are turning on him.

I expect some kind of regime change in israel before he manages to push things too far, same in the ukraine.

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