77 Comments

The hourglass is an interesting frame. Indeed, America is a tellurocracy with a thalassocracy attached - Rome, married to Carthage. The latter relies upon the former for its base of operations, and is very much in the ascendant; as always the maritime trade empire is much wealthier (on paper) than the land empire. Yet for all that wealth its influence over the land empire is extremely limited.

Another factor: sabotage. A modern, high tech military has an incredibly long logistics tail, with a ridiculous number of points of failure, each of which is capable of crippling the great, lumbering machine. A military comprised of resentful conscripts would be fertile ground for saboteurs, who would be spoiled for choice.

Another factor, related to enforcement: how are draft dodgers and deserters to be handled? Imprisonment? Now we need guards, and potentially quite a few of them. Execution? Likely to inflame things further. Fines? Well sure but that doesn't work so well when the populace is already immiserated.

One note on Taiwan: my impression is that onshoring the island's chipfabs is difficult to accomplish on a short time frame. Decades of deindustrialization means that America has lost much of the know-how. Spooling back up will take a long time. Similar manufacturing problems afflict the rest of the American economy. This is mostly a problem for the maritime empire: replacing ships and aircraft lost in battle is not so easily done anymore, meaning that a naval war with a manufacturing power like China would probably see the balance of naval power shift quite rapidly.

On natural resources, indeed China has extended supply lines in this respect, but Russia has almost everything China needs and the US can't do much about those trade routes. China also has a lock on rare earths. No question the US could shut down the maritime trade routes overnight, but the US is largely dependent on Chinese manufacturing so that's a double edged sword.

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I'll take issue with some of your arguments:

1. the Pentagon can probably build a large enough army by drafting illegal immigrants in exchange for citizenship after x amount of years. This has its own problems, but I think it would work.

2. AI will probably do most of the heavy lifting of surveillance in the future and probably way better than thousands of agents, so yes, I think they hear and know everything we say online or on phone etc... at least from the point of view of being able to separate the relevant from the irrelevant.

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Start drafting the leftist, purple haired, inked, metal nose furniture feminist women and see what chaos that brings. They demand more than equal rights to slime our humanity, so let it be so. Let them die for what they believe in. It will be considered a mass post term non-binary abortion project. Planned Parenthood will endorse it and it will be good. Your carbon footprint has been reduced. Thank you for your support. Build back better. The air will be cleaner without your stench.

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The draft wouldn't work because America's warrior caste hates the regime. Take it from someone who knows: the combat arms soldiers of the American Empire joined for the violence and adventure. They hate the regime just as much as any of us, and they'd jump at the chance for some of that military adventurism right here at home...

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Here is a problem the Regime might not have considered. What happens if there is a war and through sheer necessity and attrition more competent men rise into positions of leadership? Wouldn't that be crazy? I mean who has ever heard of any fallout in history from a battle hardened expeditionary force that wanted to have a little chat with domestic leadership about how certain issues were handled? What if they even had inflamed political differences between them?

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I'd like to see the upper middle class revert to WASPish patriotism and drag their private school kids to the recruiting office to fight the commies.

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I’m not worried about a draft.

The last grifters in DC can turn out the lights.

Why Conscription?

Fear.

They’ve lost the military caste.

Warrior class.

Whatever you want to call us.

They sold us out and pissed away our blood and trust.

They’re justly afraid.

Here’s what worries them; the service is 80% generational - from the same families. The same families often law enforcement, and cross over into higher levels of law enforcement and yes the IC. Also Firefighters etc, we’re all as connected as the NYFD and NYPD (who also serve in the military) they are more typical of the nation than realized.

They’ve lost us. BYE.

They’re alone, guilty as Hell of every crime and sin known to Hell, and their delusions are collapsing.

Let them go, we have.

Believe me America we’re not in your way.

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I offer an alt-timeline vis a vis Taiwan. First off any war will be short and China will 'win'. Not a real win but they take it over. Here is the catch that wraps it up nicely.

Taiwan has ~20 extremely large landing craft. Now that many craft would be wholly inadequate to invade mainland China. But I propose they are for an entirely different purpose -- evacuation. Use of these craft would be used to move key pols, business and tech personnel off the island. Once off, by agreement with the US low level nukes just level the place.

Its a gruesome thought but it would make for a Pyrrhic victory for China proper. Considering that fab plant construction is going at break neck speed in the US makes one wonder if this might be a war plan.

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Great read. Interesting thoughts. I will say that it no longer takes humans to do surveillance. It’s not a right wing conspiracy that texts and emails are forever and key words are scanned electronically and spit out to human analysts. Also Jan 6th was hardly a riot let alone an insurrection. Yet dozens of people have been sentenced to 20 years in prison for crimes that haven’t been enforced in a half century. Which shows us how paranoid the Feds are of the people. Well done sir.

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It all makes sense if you assume mass death of conscripted slaves was a feature not a bug. The oligarchy know what tech is in the pipeline (general AI and automation) and what jobs it threatens (all of them) and want to dispose of all the economically redundant unemployed-and-unemployable former working classes before we face a binary choice between starving and violently revolting to take their wealth?

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I'm old but missed the Vietnam draft by 3 years. Any attempt at a draft would see resistance that would make the anti war movement of the 60s-70s pale in comparison

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Do so enjoy reading your work. As a peaceful activist committed to self defense and the ideals of our founders, I find hope in the strength and good sense of my brothers and sisters.

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My God the wailing about a draft is the only point in its favor...

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I am so happy to see people are really starting to read and think about what you said. Your articles are the type of deeply disturbing thought pieces that I really enjoy reading. Keep that brain working.

I have seen you mentioned on Ace of Spades Ace.mu.nu and in this article on American Greatness. https://amgreatness.com/2023/11/13/why-doesnt-the-department-of-defense-defend-us/

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I don't have faith in the American people. They didn't react when loved ones died via Cuomo nursing home directives, forced ventilators, remdesivir and the vax. They stayed in, masked up, went bankrupt. Only Soro$ funded mobs got rowdy.

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Conscripts for someones else's politics. Russia's rome or EU glory. Who cares. Those conscripts get nothing. It's dollars per hour; and would you die for more?

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