Would Your Home Survive Civil War? And Could you Survive in it?

The Perils of Modern Shelter

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When the Lindy Effect is Life or Death

In my recent deep dive into the effects of sieges, blockades, and attacks on vital infrastructure in a hypothetical US Civil War or Mixed WW3 scenario, I covered why I think getting clean water is a potentially much larger challenge that the ussual prepper concern of stockpiling food:

Civil War Scenario: Blockade & Airstrike

While it’s certainly possible for the elderly, sickly, and very young to starve or get diseases of malnutrition during a seige or blockade, the modern western food system simultaneously produces extraordinarily calorie dense and non-perishable food in such extraordinary amount and so comparatively cheaply to the per capita GDP of western countries that effective food costs could double or triple and the quality and amount of food produced collapse, and still not reach a point where blockaded or besieged Americans would be unable to feed themselves… We’ve seen in Gaza one of the most intensive and brutal blockades and sieges in 100 years last over a year now… And of the ~190k the Lancet estimates to have died, my own speculation is less than a half can be attributed to starvation and disease as opposed to the direct effects of bombing or the collapsing Gazan healthcare system…

Under 5% total population death for all disease and starvation in a year of intensive siege. That’s horrific, by far the worst we’ve seen since ww2, and Gaza’s average age is under 18 so not an apples to oranges comparison with a US siege (American populations would take casualties far faster), but compared to Napoleonic sieges or something like the Siege of Leningrad… It shows how much modern developments in food processing and medicine stretch survivability as far as the prepper is concerned.

Instead the piece focused on the immediate concern of safe water for drinking and cleaning, which can kill far faster than malnutrition, and which remains a horrifyingly pressing concern for Gazans.

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But there’s another concern that didn’t make it into the piece, that should be of major concern to the prepared American: We’ve covered food, we’ve covered water… what about shelter?

For the average American their home is the biggest investment they make, and is thought to secure responcible middle-class people against the turbulence of life. Indeed one could argue that the sprawling layout of American suburbs uniquely prepare them for all kinds of civil war and conflict scenarios, both in the defensive architecture of how their confusing spread out cul-de-sac road networks disincentivize urban criminals, hypothetical raiders, or even the marginal military convoys from venturing through the suburbs (Armored vehicles can drive through picket fences, but they stay on the road most of the time)… and slow them down if they do. But just the spread out single detached style of american housing with their wide yards would minimize the effect of artillery and airstrikes… compared to the cramped apartment blocks and refugee camps of Gaza, it’d actually be really hard to kill 50+ people in a single strike on the American suburbs…American suburbs are almost the exact opposite urban development pattern of the middle-east.

So your house is unlikely to be killed by enemy fire unless you personally attract enemy attention, there almost certainly aren’t enough (non-nuclear) munitions in the world to make suburban crossfire a major concern. Though if you ARE personally pissing off people who contract Lockheed Martin, you may want to look into how to produce basement bunkers, or how to make your prepper stash portable…

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HOWEVER! How would your house or apartment hold up to Siege or Blockade!?

The Lindy effect states that on average when one sees something they are seeing it in the middle of its life cycle, the longer something has been around the longer it is likely to survive… Ironically a rule that did not apply to the Actual Lindy’s Restaurant it was named for… Which closed merely 5 years after the effect was named for it… But the principle is sound.

Indeed mathematically one needs to create incredibly unusual, or pre-selected samples to find populations of objects or lifeforms where their average age does not approximate their average projected remaining lifespan. Across the American population and most American towns, the average person has an age of 38.5 and lifespan of 76 (almost perfect)… and this seemingly applies even to regions that are much outside the norm… Many black neighborhoods have average ages of 30 and lifespans of 69.

The rare samples where projected lifespan is multiples or orders of magnitude off from age, are unusual or pre selected samples… Like old folks homes or Kindergartens, groups already pre-sorted by life-stage.

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And this principle, in theory, also applies houses (on average).

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Abandoned houses of Detroit.

In principle a new house can last 70-100, or even 200-300 years… In reality, on average, something like half don’t make it to 70.

Of course many houses are torn down merely to put new construction in, for reasons of fashion or luxury… This isn’t much of a concern… Almost all the first homes the Pioneers built were torn down because they were crappy log structures… but faulty construction trends, natural disaster, urban/geopolitical happenings, and regional variation can wipe out entire crops of houses in one fell swoop.

Hurricane Katrina.

Ask yourself:

Where is the nearest house to mine that’s over 100 years old?

The two answers you want are: “My house is 100 years old”, or “the house next door is 100 years old”

The further afield you have to go to find one, the more likely your house is in a low lying area, a tornado alley, a mudslide zone, an artificially level sinkhole prone area, or just somewhere that gets brutal hurricanes every 10-30 years…

And while all of these are either insurable, or government insured risks… (or not… you should check. Lots of people have painfully discovered just how capricious and unpredictable federal disaster and flood relief can be)…

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But now imagine you are in the midst of a 30 year war. Imagine you are in something approximating the Syrian war, and your home-state is in a state of low to high intensity warfare, with attendant economic decline… FOR A DECADE+.

What are the odds that in the midst of that you get a hurricane or other natural disaster, and now you’re a refugee in a tent?

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This is a major risk! Almost every prepper concern and setup presumes you have a normal middle-class home to store and hide your prepping kit and plans… That’s not a guarantee, lots of people in wars wind up reduced to living out of Backpacks, cars, or UN Camps and tents… And if you can predict that you might NATURALLY be reduced to that state in the course of mere 30-60 year extremes in weather, that’s a real concern for you.

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Likewise look at construction trends: Most modern construction presumes basically constant electricity, constant access to skilled tradesmen, and have been designed not for survivability but “Ecological efficiency”…

Now I grew up in an old house built in the early 1900s and have basically always lived in the kinds of drafty pre-war brick buildings that are everywhere in Ontario, Quebec, and the Midwest. I’ve often been woken up to the howling whistles of the wind on doors, windows and walls that aren’t quite sealed right, and felt the Dickensian chill as a strong gust somehow manages to creep a cold finger up my spine in the middle of the night… Old houses aren’t air tight, after generations of effort most are barely watertight, and that shows up on your heating bill. Most have seen more roof leaks than Christmases before several advancements in modern roofing.

By Contrast, my cousins’ home was built new in the late 80s, the contractor said with the size of the house, it was right on the edge of needing an always powered air-exchanger, but they decided not to get an one. Within the first month, no leaks, no unusual weather, my cousin was running around and having to wipe down the windowsills, so much water vapour was condensing on the windows and then forming puddles severe enough to water damage the window frames…

Black mold forming on a windowsill.

They got the air exchanger fairly quickly… And most modern build houses now need one they’re sealed up so tight. But in the 70s? For about a decade houses were built that quickly developed mold or long-term problems… It was common enough a lot of tradesmen could tell just entering with a sniff whether a house had mold or not, some got so bad. A shockingly high percentage of those houses either needed 10s of thousands of dollars in work to make them habitable, or had to be torn down they got so bad.

And the solution was the Air exchanger. Not to go back to more breathable construction that naturally had airflow, but to keep the intensive insulation effects of modern construction… then use an always on home appliance to force the air to keep the humidity and condition of the air tolerable for man and house.

This is one example, there are dozens of things like this where modern construction just presumes you will always have electricity, water, heating, and access to a fairly immediate supply of skilled tradesmen… By contrast older houses, especially in the north, were built under the assumption that not only would the houses either not have power, or power only intermediately, but also might be effectively cut off from most civilization (or atleast any possible work) for a season or longer.

If the power goes out and doesn’t come back on for 6 months or a year, not unheard of in Conflicts… what would happen to your house? How would you heat it? Could it keep itself dry? Could it keep itself mold free? How thick are the walls and roof? How hard a hit could they take? Could you get either watertight if it took a season or more to get them repaired?

Could you keep your house cool?

I’m always shocked at houses that are built in Canada or the Northern US that don’t have even an auxiliary option for Analog heating.

I’ve know houses in the north to have FOUR heating implements. Natural Gas (a utility) or Heating Oil (Analog, sits in tanks) for main cost effective heating, Electrical plug in heaters for cold parts of the house, A wood stove, or two, for mood or grid-down heating (relatively common in rural areas where falling trees take out powerlines), and then propane tanks to run a gas fireplace or heater in an extension or addition to their house.

This is a rather aggressive setup for a large house… But I’ve seen many houses with this many redundant heating devices, almost everyone in the northern countryside has at least 2.

By contrast in the American South and southwest millions upon millions of homes have been built in the past 40 years that in many areas are just as if not more dependent on Air Condition to make the homes tolerably survivable for the people who live there… That to a one are dependant entirely on the electrical line coming in.

Now i don’t think suburban houses in dry Phoenix, Arizona would develop black mold if they lost Air conditioning and Air Cycling for a few months… It’d be too dry. But I’m not sure anyone could live in those houses without air conditioning… And I’ve no Idea what would happen to them unattended that long.

Likewise I don’t know all the particulars of what happens in the Swampy humid deep south when the power goes out and air conditioning stops for months or years… But I can’t imagine modern suburban construction would hold up for long without molds or other maladities taking hold.

Sure all of this is reduced if a person is on the scene applying lots of maintenance attention to the house… but no power, no AC, deep in the south or desert… That’s rough living. Many would choose to board the house up and move in with family elsewhere, would the houses survive if left alone that long?

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now consider a Syria or Gaza level occurence, where your home might be without power for years, or take, not a direct hit, but tertiary damage, for which you won’t be getting skilled trademen and replacement parts for years as well.

Could you keep your home tolerable for living? Could you keep your home alive?

There are lots of areas that take storms and normal roof damage in a 5 year span just from extreme weather… Could you make your roof or walls watertight to withstand another 1-2 years of siege?

Remember for most people their home is their primary investment… and home insurance does not cover war, civil unrest, or other man-made correlated risks.

If you can’t answer these questions there’s serious risk you’ll end up broke and homeless in the midst of a conflict.

Solutions:

The big thing is you need an auxiliary heating/cooling/airflow system. Both for your own wellbeing, and your house's survival.

This could be a woodstove, propane, oil, solar power backup… You know your area. You need to be able to keep your home bare minimum survivable if the natural gas and electrical lines go down and stay down for months or become intermittent for years.

Likewise you need to be able to repair damage and leaks to your home if tradesmen and services are not available for months on end.

In northern climates expect that all those roads that depend on constant snowplowing to remain open year round, will simply go unplowed if conflict heats up. likewise you should consider how you’d keep your vehicle useful and mobile if normal services disappear.

There is also the Question of “Winterization”, in northern Climates where houses and cottages might go uninhabited for an entire winter season, there are lots of things done to ensure the home will be there come spring, handymen will drain lines and employ other techniques to prevent pipes and furnaces from suffering damage, the home might have windows boarded up to prevent stray branches from letting in the elements, and in general the home will be prepared to allow it to freeze down to -5 or -20 and then defrost in the spring without damage…

I have no idea what the equivalent would look like in the Swampy south, or scorching deserts of the southwest… but it may very well be that at some point in a conflict you may have to abandon your home for lack of water or food in the area, or fear of a secret police knock in the night, or flee before an advancing army…

And the thing is you’ll want to do this if the risk to you and your home is *merely* 10-20%.

Now, you absolutely won’t risk your life or the lives of your children by staying through that… but if you can give yourself an 80% chance your house might still be there when you come back in 6 months to 6 years, that’s a chance you’d want to maximize.

Remember this is true even in the most active war zones. About 66% of Gaza’s structures are damaged or destroyed currently… That’s horrifying, and some of the worst urban fighting we’ve seen in decades, but if you’re fleeing before such a battle, that means if you can prepare your home, you have a double digit percent chance of coming back to it. That’s worth the effort for the primary investment in your life.

And I can guarantee you, you won’t find the equipment and lumber to board up, critter proof, and “winterize” your home whether you’re worried about cold, swamp, or blazing desert heat, while everyone else is panicking and doing the same… You’ll want to get all the equipment to do that on hand well in advance.

Likewise depending on why you’re fleeing there are probably going to be people choosing to stay behind for political, economic, or sentimental reasons. If you know anyone making this choice you should sign an agreement with them that they can occupy your house should they become unsheltered in exchange for protecting it from damage to the best of their ability… Note the agreement is not to protect you or your home, but them from the accusation of looting or trespassing, if the agreement might pose a political threat to them (say if you become a proscribed emigre) you should encourage them to burn it and deny all ties to you.

In general if housing stock starts collapsing, waterlogging, or getting bombed in the midst of a civil war/conflict, there will be hoards of unsheltered refugees and street urchins looking for places to occupy… if your home survives whatever disaster or bombardment is taking out housing, then you’ll want someone you know occupying it, not whatever rando or former hobo happens to wander in.

In Conclusion

Seriously look at your house, apartment, unit, cottage, trailer, etc. And look at the houses of your family you feel responcible for: Parents, children, in laws, beloved cousins, etc. and Seriously consider how long they could survive as value-creating non-hazardous shelter in the midst of a disaster.

From my perspective, I live in Canada, everyone has Woodstoves, Propane backup heat, generators, in house heating oil tanks, etc…. And It’d still be considerable work to ensure that a grandmother who hasn’t run her wood fireplace in 20-30 years and might have a chimney clogged with a Racoon’s nest, and isn’t physically able to haul wood any longer, would be alright and her house would be fine, or stand a reasonable chance. A lot of new housing construction doesn’t even have that redundancy in it’s core life support systems, and will quickly get critters, mold, and other complications that can kill a house in months if left unresolved.

Seriously look at your house, the types of damage it takes in a normal year, and the types of damage it’d take in a major once in a decade storm… and then consider what would happen if you also didn’t have power, or couldn’t heat or cool it, or couldn’t run the aircycler to keep the humidity down and condensation from forming…

And if you rent, be VERY aware that all of this applies to you as well… Your landlord or condo association is probably not going to save the apartment you live in if they’re struggling to survive or protect themselves… A lot of apartment buildings have had to be torn down over the years when they’ve gotten riddled with toxic black mold when some air system failed or a pipe burst, and if you’re a relatively poor nobody who’s lost their job because armageddon is happening, and is now behind on their rent, and could not get another lease…

You could very well be in a situation where it’s on YOU to keep that rental unit survivable for yourself, because you might be stuck there for the next year or more. There’s certainly some poor bastard in Gaza who’s landlord is dead, and who’s survival depends on their ability to keep a crappy bachelors apartment they don’t own, and will not pass on to them intact… Because they aren’t going to be evicted as long as the bombs are falling, and you certainly won’t get kicked out for not paying rent until peace returns.

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But ya whether it’s your home and castle, your friend’s, a rental you hold the lease to, or something else, your understanding of the shelter you live in and how to keep it alive and functional will become invaluable in the midst of any conflict or disaster.

The last thing you want is to survive the immediate danger, only to be crippled for life or die in the long drawn out recovery due to respiratory ailments and infections related to the decayed home you’ve been living in for 6 months.

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