Welfare States Won't Survive Even Mild Civil Strife
Oversocialization and It's Inevitable End
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If something cannot go on forever, it will stop
I’m a “Doomer”.
This isn’t to say I’m a blackpiller, pessimist, cynic, misanthrope, etc. on a mid century time horizon I’m quite optimistic (Have kids, they’ll thank you)..
No I’m a doomer because, like Cassandra, I see an immediate, pressing, obvious as can be, Doom on the extreme near term time horizon… And apparently I’m the only one who really sees it.
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Modern welfare states are on a precipice of a unfunded liability death spiral followed by insolvency, hyperinflation, or default. As I covered in My previous piece:
The Unfunded Liability Death Trap
.. by 2028 that number will Rise to $837k and an ordinary household of 4 will have seen their, politically unavoidable, family obligation in future tax payments to the federal government increase by $804,000 in just 4 years.
If your response is that your family doesn’t even make 804k in 4 years and there’s no way you could ever pay that much in 4 years given its just going to increase at a faster rate the next 4 years… CONGRATULATIONS! 90% of families don’t make that much, and less than 1% of families could ever afford to pay that much in taxes in a 4 year time.
everything that piece summarizes, the Financial nightmare the American Empire, is staring down by 2030 if not sooner.
Stuff Ron Paul tried to tell you in 2008 and 2012.
But the thing not even Libertarians seem to grasp is how fragile and functionally impotent the Government’s security apparatus is to even secure itself. Perhaps no state in human history has been stretched so thin, with so little on the ground enforcement and been able to assume so much goodwill and cooperation as the US Empire and Western “Liberal Democracies”.
If Your average western citizen behaved merely as cynically, tribalistically, and self-interestedly as your average Greek Citizen, the whole thing would have fallen apart decades ago. Something your average western citizen is slowly becoming with the fallout of mass immigration, and as those immigrants import their low trust cultural assumptions.
North American and North European welfare states could have only ever worked with homogenous North European populations… now that’s ending in a slow drawn out death.
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But The thing is it doesn’t take the average to degrade much at all for these institutions to fail… It’d just take the most malicious or literal minded “originalist” striking in the right spots. It’d just take the 1 in a million doing what’s logically going to follow in the next 5 years.
When i was a kid there was a TV Show called Masterminds (not the British Game Show) it was a Canadian True Crime series about the most unique and brilliant thieves and criminals who got away with millions, the titular Masterminds.
In retrospect, it was such a huge part of my childhood (I must have watched nearly every episode) that I forget most people don’t intuitively know how a counterfeiting operation or nautical smuggling scheme, or warehouse theft ring works.
Alas the genre kind of died out with the show: most true crime fans are far more interested in serial killer psychology and the sexy details and passions of spousal homicide… I’m the only one who sat their in giddy awe at men who went in to work the day after the heist and let on not a thing had happened, or in rapt attention at the chess match of the Berlin Bank Heist.
But there was one episode that always stuck with me… The simplicity.
In a show that had helicopter escapes, motorcycle chases, modded out James Bond spy cars, teenage money forgers, veteran jewel thieves, super hackers, aviation engineer super smugglers… This one stood out for its nigh stupid simplicity.
He treated bank robbery as a literal door to door business.
Gilbert Galvan’s great innovation wasn’t a high tech brilliance, it was stripping bank robbery itself down to its barest essentials, and then repeating it at scale. To the point where he could rob one bank, and then rob the bank across the street whilst police were still in the first investigating (literally! this was how they found out he existed).
He’d line up with the rest of the customers, wait his turn, approach the teller, and then quietly show her his pistol before demanding the money, and just WALK out the front door of the bank. The person behind him in line never knew that the robbery had even happened.
The limitation was of course he never hit the safe, and only got one teller’s worth of cash, about 5-20k per robbery (1980s dollars, so double or triple modern dollars), but, wearing elaborate theatrical disguises for every heist, the chance of of him ever being tracked down were effectively Zero. And needing only one man, there was no accomplice to rat him out.
He carried out FIFTY heists this way, and to this day this remains the greatest lesson I’ve learned from the show… The devastating effect of simple marginally effective things, done at scale. It’s certainly served me well marketing this blog.
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Now apply this lesson to the modern Cradle to Grave Total State.
Since the Trudeau’s government funded media started promoting a blood libel against christian church run Residential schools, falsely alleging ground penetrating radar had found “mass graves” at the site of the schools from the first half of the 20th century, over 100 churches have been attacked or burned in Canada.
Whilst the first few fires were probably set by the same person in British Columbia, once it became a national story with political valence disaffected copycats quickly sprung up around the nation. There is basically a zero percent chance the vandals on one end of the country know, or have ever met, the vandals on the other side. And basically no way that catching even one group of vandals or arsonists would stop the attacks.
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Now I would like you to imagine the implications for civil strife in the US and western welfare states, when this starts happening to government offices or schools which get embroiled in LGBTQ or Childhood transition scandals.
Remember that the average public elementary or high school has 1000+ students in it, the bottom 10-20% of whom absolutely despise the place. People always wonder at how many mass shootings there are in the US but I’m always shocked at how few there are.
There are 40,000 suicides a year in the US, and while the numbers are hard to grab at least 10,000 of those are youth suicides. That so few decide to take classmates with them always struck me as bizarre given that human beings have killed 100s of millions of each other in the past 100 years… but then isn’t it also interesting the number of mass shootings has risen so rapidly since Columbine and the media cycle popularization of it public consciousness?
Likewise half a million Americans are treated for self inflicted injury every year, of which over 100k are Youth, and 424,000 youth are arrested on some crime or other every year.
I’m going to call it right now:
In the next 5 years someone out there, might be in America, might be in Europe, is going to start burning down schools for some ideological reason, we might never even know why if they are never caught.
And At that point copycat school burnings will become one of the most dramatic and prominent trends in western life as it is quickly copied around the western world. In the past 3 years of those 100 Canadian churches vandalized, 33 burnt right to the ground (10 per year). If you assumed the same number with no boost from all the students/parents who despise their school or maybe even feel mortal danger from them, that’d still be (population adjusted) something like 100 schools per year burning in America, probably til the end of time. Assuming those government buildings have the usual ludicrous construction costs of 20ish million… that’d be about 2 billion dollars per year in lost buildings, which, lets be honest, probably won’t get replaced in a timely manner.
There are 97,500 public schools in America, assuming just that Canadian Church burning rate of attacks that’d be more than 1% of American public schools gone in a decade.
But of course it wouldn’t happen at the Rate of Canadian churches… because society is set up around public schools and you are compelled to attend, socially, legally, and economically in a way that no one is compelled to attend those already dying and irrelevant Mainline churches. (one of the pastors even made a press release to forgive the arsonists before they were caught; politically irrelevant institutions)
At the rate public schools are politicizing and with the decades of Trauma build up around them, it’s pretty much guaranteed that several multiples of Canadian Church rate would burn once they start going… It’d probably be the end of public education in America in very short order.
And all it would take is 1 or 2 angry people just as it only took one lone arsonist in BC to start the Canadian Churches trend.
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The above is a prediction. I think this is highly likely, especially if the trend setter makes a political statement the media just can’t ignore…
But it is just an example.
What I want to point to is the wider phenomenon:
We live in a Security State that has no Security… Even for itself
I first really started to realize the implications of this during lockdowns. My country was amongst the most totalitarian on earth for what it threatened to do. Not a day went by some public announcement seemingly confirmed that Alex Jones was right, they actually were passing bills to fund detainment camps, they actually were creating digital apps to leave or return to the country, with the Social Credit promise that these would soon be usable to exclude people from ordinary businesses or lock people out of employment all on one app one total system.
The number of people I know who bought guns during this period or started attending major protests, the apocalypticism.
This wasn’t conspiracists telling you Clauss Schwab and the globalists were going to implement Chinese style totalitarianism, this was the minister of Finance in no uncertain terms saying THIS IS WHAT WE ARE PASSING THESE BILL TO DO.
And then the Trucker Protest happened and it all just disappeared overnight.
But I had a interesting experience in the middle of this, at the darkest moment when it looked like Deus Ex and conspiracist SciFi had been too optimistic… I decided look up who would be enforcing the tribunals they were bringing in for one of the acts restricting speech…
I had not made one click off the Google Search when I was meant with a page listing all of their names, biographies, cities of residence, and law firm affiliations. The Chairperson, the Undersecretary, the members, the alternates.. all of them right there with little blurbs. Some even redirected to their LinkedIns. These people were explicitly passing laws to create secret police forces and totalitarian enforcement regimes, and these were going to be the enforcers.
And I was pretty certain that if I had kept looking I would have found their home addresses.
Who were these clowns?
Of course in the aftermath of the Trucker Rebellion Trudeau and then the rest of the world caved immediately and reverse everything, even things the Truckers hadn’t thought to ask for.
Read my full piece:
But it was shocking… These people were explicitly willing and ready to implement totalitarianism, explicitly using the words conspiracists had been using to predict the coming total state for 20 years… And just like that instead of cracking down or tightening the noose, they caved to one of the most peaceful (and relatively small) protests in history.
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My working theory is the people who have inherited the post World Wars totalitarian progressive welfare state have no idea what it is, how it works, what politics is, or what words mean…
A 100% theater kid occupied government playing at statesman, beaurocrat, politician, tyrant, globalist, secret police… With no idea what chairs they’re sitting in or what the words coming out of their mouths mean; Justin Trudeau’s highest qualification pre-politics was Drama Teacher.
Of course for those of you unaware Progressive “Liberal Democracy” is a form of totalitarianism. As any member of the pre-war American capitalist right would tell you. Conscription, the income tax, centralized regulation and control of all schooling, business, universities, and even private association… These are all markers of Totalitarianism, indeed Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s speeches bear a shocking resemblance to Adolf Hitler’s, so close is the economic program of centralized regulation, control and direction of all private business by government bureaucracy between Progressivism and “National Socialism”’s modified Fascism.
Nobel Prize winning Economists like Hayek have long commented on this inherent similarity between the two systems, the distinction was we were supposed to go back to freedom and capitalism at the end of the war.
Which did not happen, and which CIA man, regime loyalist, and founder of National Review William F. Buckley explicitly stated would not happen. First because of the cold war… and then when the cold war finally ended, because reasons.
“thus far invincible aggressiveness of the Soviet Union imminently threatens U.S. security," [thus] "we have got to accept Big Government for the duration — for neither an offensive nor a defensive war can be waged … except through the instrumentality of a totalitarian bureaucracy within our shores”
-William F Buckley 1952
Read Nixon Communication Director, and arch-PaleoCon Patrick Buchanan to see the betrayal cold warriors felt when the Berlin Wall finally fell and the income tax didn’t end and Liberty didn’t return.
But anyway the long and short of it is: We live in a totalitarian regime, we’ve lived in a Totalitarian regime since at least 45 and arguable most of the groundwork was laid in World War 1.
The fact the regime is now gently broaches totalitarianism like during Covid but can’t even back up its broaching speaks to a complete collapse in even illegitimate leadership or conspiratorial direction.
Canada currently has a scandal NOT on the fact that the ArriveCan app was funded and created so as to be a totalitarian social credit system controlling who could and couldn’t enter the country, with plans to expand it to include most functions of life… but instead is having a scandal over the fact government crony contractors pocketed the money and turned out a barely functional webpage for the 50+ million spent on it.
We live in a Fascist state without any efficient Eichmanns, we live in a Communist Society without a Cheka, or rather worse, we live in one with hundreds of thousands claiming to fill that role whilst pocketing the money and siloing themselves away from any responsibility or work that might be needed by the total state.
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Another Example:
There was a meme going around on right wing spaces recently to the effect you knew all the school shootings were “MKULTRA psy-ops” because they always attacked schools but never IRS offices.
I saw a whole lot of people take the “joke” quite literally seemingly instantly convinced Sandy Hook was actually a crisis actor event, or Uvalde or Las Vegas were “manchurian Candidate” style “programed” attacks… it was so impossible for these people to believe that Children in schools (who they’re horrified get attacked) were being naturally targeted more often than IRS agents (whom they implicitly wish would get attacked).
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The IRS is currently planning to expand to 100,000 employees, that sounds like a lot until you remember the entire American state rests on these multi-gendered, multiethnic, differently-abled agent/accountant types. (at least that’s what their recruitment ads lead me to believe)
Now 100,000 actually makes the math and comparisons really easy because that’s the standard unit for occupational and regional comparisons…
Police officers and security jobs have an occupational fatality rate (accidental and intentional) of about 10 per 100,000. Farming, Fishing, and Forestry jobs ~25 per 100,000.
There have been SEVERAL individual mass shootings just in the past 10 years that have killed or injured 30+ Americans.
It would take 1 mass shooter who knew how to aim to make IRS agent one of the deadliest jobs in America for that year… seemingly to memers wishes.
If IRS shootings were 1 quarter as common as school shootings the job would quickly as dangerous a residency in Baltimore 58 per 100,000 or maybe East St Louis 100 per 100,000k… a town where for every 10 years of residency you have a 1% chance of being a murder victim.
This is for the IRS, in some countries their tax services are 50k, 20k, 10k. and for each the effect and relative risk is multiplied proportionately.
If such a thing became moderately normalized such as school shootings now are, basically the IRS or any comparable department would become immediately crippled by the exodus of workers who aren’t getting paid multiples of Lumberjack or Northern Fisherman wages to take multiples of the risk.
They’d just quit at obscene numbers… And then the tax system would begin to collapse, and then the state.
This already almost happened in 2010 the Joseph Stack’s Austin Suicide plane attack just narrowly avoided being vastly more famous by the fortuitous circumstance that only one other person was killed, and that plane attacks are rather more difficult for disaffected losers to emulate.
But still I remember hand wringing articles and rage filled commentators (notably The Last Psychiatrist) angry at how little condemnation they were seeing from the ordinary people for the attack… in 2010!
The effect such things would have today it’s hard to imagine what such a direct attack on the regime’s most obvious lever of control would do to the already tempestuous state of American life.
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Now of course in the USSR or Nazi Germany, the response of the regime to such resistance by the public, even lone kooks would be obvious, assign more armed men, have examples made of the villages and towns that produced the loony attackers, make accusations of collusion and torture confessions out of people.
Even in the US, FDR forced 120k Japanese Americans into internment camps for vastly less…
But the modern Welfare state is insanely enforcement and violence adverse compared to the mid 20th century total states it still maintains all the institutions of, even as it is vastly VASTLY more dependent on all those institutions working without a hitch.
America in WW2 and immediately after had a massive demographic surplus of young productive LOYAL people and exceptional credit. Basically there was nothing anything like this could really do to the system… but in modern America?
Such thing’s would soon cripple the creditworthiness of the regime and the welfare state itself… And with the current state of politics it’s not as if the National Guard would suddenly be able or willing to fill in as deputized IRS agents if they just started quitting in large numbers due to perceived danger.
Why bring up these examples?
Because these are the most obvious examples I’ve already seen people talk about. Trust me there are dozens and dozens of other things I’ve read or examples that have been given to me that would make your jaw drop of how brittle and disastrously unsurvivable the current regime is.
I gave these examples to show how fairly ordinary civil friction and violence: Canadian Church Burnings, School Shootings, etc.
If applied to the US government, which they probably will be and which the US regime seems to have only escaped via chance, would be sufficient on their own to massively degrade the scope and functionality of US governance…
The centralized US educational ideological system would not survive a relatively precedented rash of arsons it surprising it hasn’t already provoked… just as the US tax system would not survive a mass shooting craze such as the US education system is already suffering.
Very ordinary frictions fringe weirdos and nutters are already generating would be sufficient to degrade it beyond repair if in their lunacy they just landed ever so slightly different, and this is without getting into any of the really concerning stuff I’ve seen subject matter experts talk about at length in whispered horror. the rapt horror with which I’ve heard people discuss the power grid, and logistics…
There are government departments as vital if not more so than the tax system, and which rely on vastly fewer and less replaceable.
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Remember Western “Liberal Democracy” is actually just a slightly different species of totalitarian fascism, as its proponents like Buckley will straight up tell you (have literally heard professors say certain elections and liberties are contrary to “Our Democracy”). A totalitarian Fascism which has lost both the will and the institutional means to enforce itself… How does such a system survive?
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Follow me on Twitter: @FromKulak
> But the thing not even Libertarians seem to grasp is how fragile and functionally impotent the Government’s security apparatus is to even secure itself.
I'm not so sure. Remember Maduro is still in charge of Venezuela, despite the hyperinflation and complete economic meltdown.
Also, I don't think the Trudeau regime wanted to find the perpetrators in the church burnings.
No security apparatus? These days there are cameras EVERYWHERE.
Old churches are pre modern building code relics. School buildings have lots of flammables, but they also have sprinkler systems.
The way to resist the school these days is to homeschool. To resist the tax man the way to go is to deal in cash or crypto.
The government institution most liable to trigger violence is child protective services. At some point a parent who had his child transition without his permission is going to go berserk.
Our modern small family lifestyle leads to parents loathe to send kids to war, revolution, or dangerous occupations. But take away that small family and sunk cost berserk mode cuts in.
A renewed draft might trigger domestic violence for the same reason.