Short Take: The General Factor of Conspiracy... C

A Guide to Basic Noticing

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So there's this ethnic group that many people speculate are behind significant number of conspiratorial and conspiracy action...

Many people think of this as absurd! Conspiracy theories are inherently implausible, this is racist, blah, blah, blah...

But the thing is conspiracies, criminal conspiracies, the type of thing you could be charged with "Conspiracy" charges for... This behaviour obviously happens, there are charges for it.

But is this behaviour evenly distributed across ethnic groups? Could there be a way to quantify, at least in the hypothetical, a general factor of conspiracy, C, the same way there is a general factor of intelligence G, and then observe which groups might or might not be more or less conspiratorial at the group level.

Obviously if you were able to do regular testing over time you'd be able to develop questionnaires or sets of lifestyle/life history facts that would predict someone's general factor of Conspiracy C.

However if this varied heavily by ethnicity, we'd assume this might be visible to mere human pattern recognition and noticing, the same way group stereotypes generally lined up with the actually revealed group differences in average intelligence revealed by IQ testing.

And indeed you can imagine the kind of fast and dirty metrics you might use to test both intelligence and conspiracism at the group level.

To try and quickly tell average intelligence between groups difference you might assess tallest building heights in small towns, farthest trader ranging, maximum range of past military activity, complexity of language/record keeping, complexity of lifestyle and modes of wealth generation, rate of random milling about, etc.

And from this we'd expect you be able to guess (even if you couldn't look up the psychometric averages) which groups on average were higher or lower on the general factor of intelligence.

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We can try to come up with similar fast and dirty observations for trying to estimate a group's average general factor of conspiracy.

Like our metrics for intelligence these observations will be directly tied to an observable tract records for past conspiracism, and from this we will be able to create estimates of how groups rank on conspiracism.

These are the questions I've come up with:

1. Has the group formed known ethnic mafias (litteral criminal conspiracies) in it's immigrant communities in other countries? The Irish and Italians we know formed quite famous ethnic mafias in America the early 20th century, German, Finnish and Scandinavian immigrants by contrast did not.

2. Is the group over-represented in national and international terrorist or revolutionary political movements (again litteral criminal conspiracies) relative to its population? For example: The Italians again were over-represented in 19th century anarchist terror groups, the irish obviously again, have had the IRA for over 100 years. Even the quebecois are noteworthy for having an ethnic terror movement, rather uniquely in north America. And countless ethnicities were involved international terror associated with communism or other ideological movements.

3. Is the group over represented in the government/NGO sphere? As libertarians will tell you Taxation is theft, and how that money gets distributed depends on elaborate patronage networks and crooked self-dealing. Basically if someone or a group is massively overrepresented in the Gov/NGO space you can bet they're focused on carving out a slice of that pie for themselves. The Quebecois again are an example of an ethnicity who is overrepresented in this way, North American Ukrainian Immigrants 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation are another such example... They're massively overrepresented in Government and Foreign policy NGOs.

4. Does this group disproportionately participate in a prominent intelligence service, or does it have a nation state with a prominent intelligence service? For example Mormons disproportionately participate in the US securtity state, and the British and Russians both have had prominent intel services. By contrast the Danes and Jamaicans have no such association.

5. Does the group have exclusionary-hierarchical-separatist religious orders and organizations associated with it? Scientologists are a good example of this, likewise polygamist mormon sects have many conspiracies (convicted and accused) associated with them. The people's temple of Jonestown is a very good example of just how extreme hierarchical and exclusionary and separate religious groups can get... And of course many groups have 1-2 traits but not all 3, the Amish are separatist and (mildly) exclusionary but not hierarchical (their churches are very flat and business, family life ,etc. goes through capitalist private property, and the lack of all three traits should lower your estimation of the conspiratorial potential.

6. Does the group have a siege mentality? Do they have a persecution complex? The Irish and Scientologists are good examples of famous siege mentalities, the Irish less-so now, but the rise of a siege mentality gives groups intense mental and social license to participate in conspiracies, because they feel desperate, and/or that the people outside the conspiracy are in fact the aggressors.

7. Have significant numbers of the group participated in and gained experience in irregular or low intensity warfare? Modern low intensity warfare is very similar to crime-wars and fighting between Mafias, with intense pressure to morally compromise, spy, blackmail, bribe,and countless other conspiratorial behaviours, as a matter of course. Beyond this low intensity wars create the motive for conspiring, whether that be vengeance or mere funding the war…. Again the Northern Irish are a good example of this, various Lebanese ethnicities are famed for their various backbiting conspiring against each-other in Lebanon, and the Ethnicities of the Balkans are consistently tied to ethnic crime/paramilitary parts of life, even if they’ve moved to other continents and personally would like to move on…

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As you can see: I don't think we should trust the Chechens, and we should probably keep and eye on the mormons, Quebecois, and especially the Irish... but which group do you think looks conspiratorial? Which questions do you think would be good for isolating C, the general factor of Conspiracy?

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