As the U.S. inches closer and closer to losing its superpower and world reserve currency status, its peripheries will come under increasing strain -- i.e. Israel, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, control over Europe, etc. The U.S. population has no appetite for another boots-on-ground Middle Eastern war after the disasters of Afghanistan and Iraq, no matter how hard Fox News tries to shill it onto the retarded masses. Also, the West seems to have no counter to cheap drones at this point, and Iran is the master of them (and hence their proxies are benefitting).
Furthermore, Israel is unable to decisively win a war against its neighbors because the illusion that Hamas/Hezbollah are somehow divorced from the population that supports them is completely nonsensical, yet Israel cannot punish the non-combatant populations without incurring a level of PR hits that could put its existence at risk (given it basically relies fully on the U.S. for its existence). It's best possibility would be to push the Gazan population out of Gaza, but no one wants to take them given how difficult they are (see the instability in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon etc. that they cause). Not a single Middle East country will offer the Palestinians citizenship or refuge, and it would be beyond foolish for the West to try to take them in.
Definitely a grim situation for Israel moving forward.
"The real reason I’m critical of Israel is it is trying to draw the US into the region. Indeed the vast majority of its policies and belligerence presumes and demands US backing to a degree that no American concerned about their own national interests should find acceptable."
Good call.
Nice write-up.
But, it's none of our business.
Israel and it's security, people, politics, culture, etc. have nothing to do with the USA.
There are dozens of regional conflicts, with roots going back centuries and millennia around the world. None of them are our business.
If Israel can't get along with its neighbors, then they need to find a way that they can. Without American gold or blood.
Thanks Kulak, bizarre as always but also very thorough and insightful. Excellent.
As merely an aside, I did have a thought regarding these lines:
"Imagine how the US would feel if a country like Cuba was trying to displace what proportionate to the population would be 6 MILLION armed and terror-prone El Salvadorians into the US, and will inevitably start decades of wars on America’s door step?
Doubtful it would politely allow it."
Actually, the US is allowing it, millions per year, and the instigators are various central American nations, most importantly Mexico.
Pretty good analysis. I wrote a similar assessment, though much briefer, of Israeli military capabilities as a comment on Simplicius' substack. The Israelis are in a bind, no doubt, and completely dependent on the U.S. . U.S. support is different with Israel than Ukraine. There are an enormous number of Jews holding Israeli sympathies in leadership roles in the U.S. government, whereas Ukraine is pretty much the work of Nuland and the small band of neo-con friends of her husband, Kagan. Wealthy Jewish oligarchs fund most U.S. political campaigns. so there is much more opportunities for political grift than merely skimming some payments to Ukraine from FTX bitcoin transactions using corrupt crypto-currency traders. Also, the Schofield Bible crowd of Christian Evangelicals is far more committed to Israel than Ukraine.
However, as the ability to print money comes to end, however, and the consequences of de-industrialization begin to manifest in the U.S., even the most die-hard Evangelical support for Israel may dry up. Remember a majority of these Evangelicals attend churches that preach the prosperity gospel. Without the promise of prosperity, they have no congregations to soak up their Zionist rantings.
As you point out, however, the U.S. is stretched far too thin, stirring up problems everywhere in the world with a military that is smaller by the day and less combat capable than ever. Moreover, even the growing cluster of fat keyboard warriors that the U.S. promotes to engorge to its enormous cadre of generals must realize that a U.S. CV battle group is helpless against hypersonic missiles, which Russia could supply to Iran easily, and Iran to Hezbollah. If Britain can give Storm Shadows to Ukraine with impunity to sink Russian ships in the Black Sea, why would Russia not supply Iran with Kinzhals for Hezbollah to sink U.S. ships?
We all remember the U.S. meme-crowd flooding social media with Ukranians flags just 18 months ago. Now where does Ukraine sit in the list of U.S. priorities, and how much longer can Ukraine receive the funding it needs to keep its war effort going? There is nothing to stop the U.S. from abandoning Israel as it has so many allies in the past. It does not help that Jewish oligarchs, like Soros, have done so much to dismantle the U.S. and feed anti-semitism. Israel should learn a lesson from Ukraine. Make peace now before the tide turns and fickle U.S. public opinion turns.
The big PR problem for Israel is that Gaza is a no-win situation of their own creation. Given the nature of the Gaza strip, any air bombing campaign will cause tremendous civilian casualties, exactly what is happening now.
When people object to this, the Israeli response is to say "Gaza is a dense urban area and Hamas hides among the population." Which is of course true, but the next question is how 2 million people came to be in a 140 square mile area surrounded by a concrete wall and guarded by the Israeli army, and how did Hamas come to exist, and the answer to both questions is bad for Israel.
This conflict has also starkly illustrated how many American elites, many of whom are either Jewish themselves or are heavily influenced by the zionist lobby in the US, are quick to support Israel unconditionally regardless of American interests, while the majority of the population wants nothing to do with this conflict (supporters for Israel in the US also seem to skew older, so this will only increase). Americans are waking up to the fact that their country sends billions of $$ every year to Israel and in return all they get is dragged into regional feuds they have no interest in.
I agree with the thesis of the article that the future is not bright for Israel.
You lost me after the comparison of the Israel/US relationship to Azerbaijani/Turkey. That and calling the Hamas attack tactically impressive.
They flew paragliders and machine-gunned down innocent civilians. Their is nothing tactically impressive about a killing spree that a bunch of 12 years could have carried out.
'Imagine how the US would feel if a country like Cuba was trying to displace what proportionate to the population would be 6 MILLION armed and terror-prone El Salvadorians into the US, and will inevitably start decades of wars on America’s door step?'
OK. I guess, considering it is actually happening. Not all Salvadorans, but millions of military aged young men, from all corners have been let in. Look at the size of the Pro-Palastinian protests. I fear Jan 6th was nothing compared to what is on its way.
When a nation of 9 million people survives, even though surrounded by a billion people who want to kill all its inhabitants and wipe it off the face of the earth, there's only one explanation. If ever the U.S. is done with Israel, God will be done with the U.S.
As the U.S. inches closer and closer to losing its superpower and world reserve currency status, its peripheries will come under increasing strain -- i.e. Israel, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, control over Europe, etc. The U.S. population has no appetite for another boots-on-ground Middle Eastern war after the disasters of Afghanistan and Iraq, no matter how hard Fox News tries to shill it onto the retarded masses. Also, the West seems to have no counter to cheap drones at this point, and Iran is the master of them (and hence their proxies are benefitting).
Furthermore, Israel is unable to decisively win a war against its neighbors because the illusion that Hamas/Hezbollah are somehow divorced from the population that supports them is completely nonsensical, yet Israel cannot punish the non-combatant populations without incurring a level of PR hits that could put its existence at risk (given it basically relies fully on the U.S. for its existence). It's best possibility would be to push the Gazan population out of Gaza, but no one wants to take them given how difficult they are (see the instability in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon etc. that they cause). Not a single Middle East country will offer the Palestinians citizenship or refuge, and it would be beyond foolish for the West to try to take them in.
Definitely a grim situation for Israel moving forward.
I can debate an awful lot of points in this article, but Kulak raises a lot of points that we should consider.
Pray that she is wrong.
But history would suggest that there is at least a possibility of some of this being right.
And both political and military leaders need to keep this in mind.
Israel needs to win every war.
The Arabs only need to win once.
If you think that there is a lot of antisemitism now, think about a world where 7 millions Israeli Jews are looking for a home.
Wow. You obviously wrote this very quickly (lots of spelling errors and such) but overall the analysis was amazing. Thanks.
"The real reason I’m critical of Israel is it is trying to draw the US into the region. Indeed the vast majority of its policies and belligerence presumes and demands US backing to a degree that no American concerned about their own national interests should find acceptable."
Good call.
Nice write-up.
But, it's none of our business.
Israel and it's security, people, politics, culture, etc. have nothing to do with the USA.
There are dozens of regional conflicts, with roots going back centuries and millennia around the world. None of them are our business.
If Israel can't get along with its neighbors, then they need to find a way that they can. Without American gold or blood.
Enough is enough.
Thanks Kulak, bizarre as always but also very thorough and insightful. Excellent.
As merely an aside, I did have a thought regarding these lines:
"Imagine how the US would feel if a country like Cuba was trying to displace what proportionate to the population would be 6 MILLION armed and terror-prone El Salvadorians into the US, and will inevitably start decades of wars on America’s door step?
Doubtful it would politely allow it."
Actually, the US is allowing it, millions per year, and the instigators are various central American nations, most importantly Mexico.
> it is one of the great bizzare ironies that fertility almost universally INCREASES the more likely a people are to suffer violent death
I wonder what this says about the nature of the West's demographic crisis.
"Imagine how the US would feel if a country like Cuba was trying to displace..."
We don't need to imagine that. It's happening on the borders right now. Not from Cuba but from many nations.
Pretty good analysis. I wrote a similar assessment, though much briefer, of Israeli military capabilities as a comment on Simplicius' substack. The Israelis are in a bind, no doubt, and completely dependent on the U.S. . U.S. support is different with Israel than Ukraine. There are an enormous number of Jews holding Israeli sympathies in leadership roles in the U.S. government, whereas Ukraine is pretty much the work of Nuland and the small band of neo-con friends of her husband, Kagan. Wealthy Jewish oligarchs fund most U.S. political campaigns. so there is much more opportunities for political grift than merely skimming some payments to Ukraine from FTX bitcoin transactions using corrupt crypto-currency traders. Also, the Schofield Bible crowd of Christian Evangelicals is far more committed to Israel than Ukraine.
However, as the ability to print money comes to end, however, and the consequences of de-industrialization begin to manifest in the U.S., even the most die-hard Evangelical support for Israel may dry up. Remember a majority of these Evangelicals attend churches that preach the prosperity gospel. Without the promise of prosperity, they have no congregations to soak up their Zionist rantings.
As you point out, however, the U.S. is stretched far too thin, stirring up problems everywhere in the world with a military that is smaller by the day and less combat capable than ever. Moreover, even the growing cluster of fat keyboard warriors that the U.S. promotes to engorge to its enormous cadre of generals must realize that a U.S. CV battle group is helpless against hypersonic missiles, which Russia could supply to Iran easily, and Iran to Hezbollah. If Britain can give Storm Shadows to Ukraine with impunity to sink Russian ships in the Black Sea, why would Russia not supply Iran with Kinzhals for Hezbollah to sink U.S. ships?
We all remember the U.S. meme-crowd flooding social media with Ukranians flags just 18 months ago. Now where does Ukraine sit in the list of U.S. priorities, and how much longer can Ukraine receive the funding it needs to keep its war effort going? There is nothing to stop the U.S. from abandoning Israel as it has so many allies in the past. It does not help that Jewish oligarchs, like Soros, have done so much to dismantle the U.S. and feed anti-semitism. Israel should learn a lesson from Ukraine. Make peace now before the tide turns and fickle U.S. public opinion turns.
The big PR problem for Israel is that Gaza is a no-win situation of their own creation. Given the nature of the Gaza strip, any air bombing campaign will cause tremendous civilian casualties, exactly what is happening now.
When people object to this, the Israeli response is to say "Gaza is a dense urban area and Hamas hides among the population." Which is of course true, but the next question is how 2 million people came to be in a 140 square mile area surrounded by a concrete wall and guarded by the Israeli army, and how did Hamas come to exist, and the answer to both questions is bad for Israel.
This conflict has also starkly illustrated how many American elites, many of whom are either Jewish themselves or are heavily influenced by the zionist lobby in the US, are quick to support Israel unconditionally regardless of American interests, while the majority of the population wants nothing to do with this conflict (supporters for Israel in the US also seem to skew older, so this will only increase). Americans are waking up to the fact that their country sends billions of $$ every year to Israel and in return all they get is dragged into regional feuds they have no interest in.
I agree with the thesis of the article that the future is not bright for Israel.
Your writing is something else entirely. Maddeningly good.
You lost me after the comparison of the Israel/US relationship to Azerbaijani/Turkey. That and calling the Hamas attack tactically impressive.
They flew paragliders and machine-gunned down innocent civilians. Their is nothing tactically impressive about a killing spree that a bunch of 12 years could have carried out.
'Imagine how the US would feel if a country like Cuba was trying to displace what proportionate to the population would be 6 MILLION armed and terror-prone El Salvadorians into the US, and will inevitably start decades of wars on America’s door step?'
OK. I guess, considering it is actually happening. Not all Salvadorans, but millions of military aged young men, from all corners have been let in. Look at the size of the Pro-Palastinian protests. I fear Jan 6th was nothing compared to what is on its way.
When a nation of 9 million people survives, even though surrounded by a billion people who want to kill all its inhabitants and wipe it off the face of the earth, there's only one explanation. If ever the U.S. is done with Israel, God will be done with the U.S.
Wow!
That was a lot. Holy Mackerel. Thanks for the report.
Netanyahu is calling for a long conflict.
I am not a military guy, buff, or historian.
I read about Hamas Tunnels, Tactics, Drones, Supplies.....
Hopefully someone with more insights can answer this question.
I saw something tonight that made me wonder. Hundreds of Modified Caterpillar Armored Tractors?
Has anyone considered that the Israelis , despite having already gone into gaza and engaging with Hamas,
Are going to close down and Area, or section, flatten the area, almost like a checkerboard ? One square at a time ?
Of you clear the square, flatten the opening of the tunnel, Close it.
Am I being naive? Sorry.
Incredible analysis. Felt like I was ingesting vitamins via my eyes.
Great piece, but N.S. Lyons might have beaten you to a dissection of the border fence failure: https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/hard-lessons-from-israels-high-tech