Bingo. I sometimes listen to VDH because he's pleasant to listen to on farming etc. But once he starts talking about poor Ukraine or his "long covid" I shriek "normie!" and switch it off.
The Foundation novels come to mind on your last point. "Dissolution is inevitable, the goal is to minimize the time between then and the equally inevitable rise of the next order".
Great article with a lot of useful stuff to chew on, especially the idea that ease of information transfer more quickly erodes decisive military advantages, and that capital/skill-intensive technologies favor decentralizing, whereas manpower-intensive technologies favor centralizing.
As for why centralizing eras end, I think John Michael Greer gets a lot right in his paper "How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse." The gist of it is that centralization allows for a concentration of economic resources (for most of history, food) that allows centralizing powers the kind of advantages that let them conquer their neighbors. Over time, though, bigger, more centralized empires require more complexity to run (think bureaucracy), and in something akin to the square-cube law, if you keep expanding, you eventually have more overhead than you are bringing in, so you start having problems, and to fund dealing with those problems, you cannibalize some of the overhead that made your big empire possible. Trouble is, once you start doing that, you can't hold onto as much empire, which erodes your resource base, which causes more economic troubles, which results in more cannibalization, and before you know it, you're in a vicious cycle that bottoms out in radically localized and decentralized economic and military solutions. Oh, and all of that is, of course, ignoring inefficiency, incompetence, and corruption.
Unfortunately, if your scenario becomes true, the death count would be huge. While military tech has made defense against an empire viable, we have the problem that we depend on a wide scale economy to survive.
Even the thought of dividing California up into reasonable sized states runs into the problem of water.
Meanwhile, the Northeast depends on piped in power to avoid freezing to death in winter. The population is too high to go back to burning wood to keep warm.
A more orderly decentralization is to be hoped for. We did manage to have railroads, canals, and telegraphs even in the days of our old republic.
I'm all for GENTLE population right sizing. I have taken issue repeatedly with those on the Right who call for outlawing birth control and other measures to grow the white population.
War and starvation are not gentle
Let's export our crack bitchy womyn studies majors to those primitive countries that haven't gotten the message that the planet has gotten pretty full, so there is no longer any imperative to start cranking out the kids at 14.
On the other hand, the intellectual elite should shoot for more than replacement level breeding as the near term threat is the Marching Morons.
A lot to chew on. Bureaucracy will expand until its mass collapses it like a dying star. Or until barbarian hordes stack their heads in the city squares.
Thank you. Lack a classical education so learning history helps me understand and plan next moves. Live on a sailboat in the Gulf islands. Sea tribes are becoming a reality as we can't afford to buy a home. Balkanization of Canada. Greer's long descent " crash now and avoid the rush"
I actually believe this will (by specific locality where applicable) turn into a race war, and blacks will be completely genocided through open air warfare and then starvation in urban areas. Also, honor killings (duels) will return and many Normies will be killed by neighbors and others they thought were allies/friends. The country will be divided like the map shows, many feudal states that eventually, via genocide and resettlement, evolved into modern city states and then nations.
If decentralization is the natural state then it is likely that periods of centralizing can only occur when there is a new technology or cultural advance that allows an individual to start centralizing (conquering or gathering). This occurs for a time, until they run out of steam or reach a limit, at which point the period of decentralization starts again
2030-2040 is also the anticipated time frame for solar grid kill shot from a solar flare. With earth losing magnetic field protection at an accelerating rate, and the recent very mild solar activity that had aurora showing up VERY far south, I think it may be designed to coincide with the collapse of the US
This is too huge and important to be a substack post. Please publish this article in book format. This is something that needs to be on my shelf as a great essag, not disappear in 5 years time because people switched social media platforms. Think about it!
That's a very detailed analysis for an introductory essay. Heck! You might as well do a postgraduate thesis on this subject! (If there's any professor willing to be your supervisor for this topic 😂)
Anyway, I would like to add one more crucial perspective on this subject: The economic supply chain collapse. The modern world we live in is made possible by economic globalisation. COVID lockdowns had shown how fragile the Just-in-Time supply chain for all businesses. One way or another, all economic sectors in every country have some stuffs they need to import from outside.
Take agriculture for example. While the farmers in Western hemisphere can produce sufficient amount of food for their population, the spare parts for their irrigation pumps mostly come from the Eastern hemisphere of the globe.
The Californian mega farms are only possible due to siphoning massive amounts of water to irrigate the barren deserts.
When decentralisation begins to pick up its pace, the port bureaucracy will definitely seize up. Could be due to lack of manpower to handle the cargos and pilot the ships to its berths or government's misplaced priorities (as is always the case) or corrupt officials taking over the whole facility as its fiefdom or any combination of the above.
This is only a tiny fragment of the supply chain for water utilities. There are many other things along the supply chain that many overlooked. The supply chain for energy utilities are even more complex.
Currently, I'm studying the entire supply chain for food, energy & water. Identifying the weakpoints and develop solutions to make my "homestead" as resilient as possible while retaining its output efficiency. Suffice to say, what started as a single-family homestead has evolved into a small agro-industrial community.
P/s: Probably we'll even form a platoon-sized community security militia since this is a joint venture with some former military folks. As safety measure against rogue pillagers and govt nationalisation. When SHTF, there'll be many loonies out there 🤔
Any centralization that is happening is only possible because majority believes in the official history narrative! Which is a fantasy full of gay unicorns!!!!!
Kulak, you have a more thorough understanding of history than any of the court historians paraded in the mainstream media. (VDH I'm talking about you)
Bingo. I sometimes listen to VDH because he's pleasant to listen to on farming etc. But once he starts talking about poor Ukraine or his "long covid" I shriek "normie!" and switch it off.
The civic patriotism makes me roll my eyes. The 1980's are not coming back.
The Foundation novels come to mind on your last point. "Dissolution is inevitable, the goal is to minimize the time between then and the equally inevitable rise of the next order".
Great article with a lot of useful stuff to chew on, especially the idea that ease of information transfer more quickly erodes decisive military advantages, and that capital/skill-intensive technologies favor decentralizing, whereas manpower-intensive technologies favor centralizing.
As for why centralizing eras end, I think John Michael Greer gets a lot right in his paper "How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse." The gist of it is that centralization allows for a concentration of economic resources (for most of history, food) that allows centralizing powers the kind of advantages that let them conquer their neighbors. Over time, though, bigger, more centralized empires require more complexity to run (think bureaucracy), and in something akin to the square-cube law, if you keep expanding, you eventually have more overhead than you are bringing in, so you start having problems, and to fund dealing with those problems, you cannibalize some of the overhead that made your big empire possible. Trouble is, once you start doing that, you can't hold onto as much empire, which erodes your resource base, which causes more economic troubles, which results in more cannibalization, and before you know it, you're in a vicious cycle that bottoms out in radically localized and decentralized economic and military solutions. Oh, and all of that is, of course, ignoring inefficiency, incompetence, and corruption.
Cheers,
Jeff
Incredible essay!
Unfortunately, if your scenario becomes true, the death count would be huge. While military tech has made defense against an empire viable, we have the problem that we depend on a wide scale economy to survive.
Even the thought of dividing California up into reasonable sized states runs into the problem of water.
Meanwhile, the Northeast depends on piped in power to avoid freezing to death in winter. The population is too high to go back to burning wood to keep warm.
A more orderly decentralization is to be hoped for. We did manage to have railroads, canals, and telegraphs even in the days of our old republic.
Well, the population density may right-size.
I'm all for GENTLE population right sizing. I have taken issue repeatedly with those on the Right who call for outlawing birth control and other measures to grow the white population.
War and starvation are not gentle
Let's export our crack bitchy womyn studies majors to those primitive countries that haven't gotten the message that the planet has gotten pretty full, so there is no longer any imperative to start cranking out the kids at 14.
On the other hand, the intellectual elite should shoot for more than replacement level breeding as the near term threat is the Marching Morons.
Sounds kind of similar to what John Michael Greer has predicted for the future. As he’s fond of saying, “Collapse now and beat the rush!”
His book was amazing, and totally could happen.
Wow—what an epic tour d’force of an essay! Incredible and awesome! Will re-read before commenting further, except to say very well done—indeed!
A lot to chew on. Bureaucracy will expand until its mass collapses it like a dying star. Or until barbarian hordes stack their heads in the city squares.
Thank you. Lack a classical education so learning history helps me understand and plan next moves. Live on a sailboat in the Gulf islands. Sea tribes are becoming a reality as we can't afford to buy a home. Balkanization of Canada. Greer's long descent " crash now and avoid the rush"
I actually believe this will (by specific locality where applicable) turn into a race war, and blacks will be completely genocided through open air warfare and then starvation in urban areas. Also, honor killings (duels) will return and many Normies will be killed by neighbors and others they thought were allies/friends. The country will be divided like the map shows, many feudal states that eventually, via genocide and resettlement, evolved into modern city states and then nations.
Brilliant; beautiful; eloquently written
If decentralization is the natural state then it is likely that periods of centralizing can only occur when there is a new technology or cultural advance that allows an individual to start centralizing (conquering or gathering). This occurs for a time, until they run out of steam or reach a limit, at which point the period of decentralization starts again
It also needs the individual to do the centralising. They're often in short supply at the times they might flourish.
2030-2040 is also the anticipated time frame for solar grid kill shot from a solar flare. With earth losing magnetic field protection at an accelerating rate, and the recent very mild solar activity that had aurora showing up VERY far south, I think it may be designed to coincide with the collapse of the US
As soon as I secure a second job, you’ll get a paid subscription from me.
This is too huge and important to be a substack post. Please publish this article in book format. This is something that needs to be on my shelf as a great essag, not disappear in 5 years time because people switched social media platforms. Think about it!
That's a very detailed analysis for an introductory essay. Heck! You might as well do a postgraduate thesis on this subject! (If there's any professor willing to be your supervisor for this topic 😂)
Anyway, I would like to add one more crucial perspective on this subject: The economic supply chain collapse. The modern world we live in is made possible by economic globalisation. COVID lockdowns had shown how fragile the Just-in-Time supply chain for all businesses. One way or another, all economic sectors in every country have some stuffs they need to import from outside.
Take agriculture for example. While the farmers in Western hemisphere can produce sufficient amount of food for their population, the spare parts for their irrigation pumps mostly come from the Eastern hemisphere of the globe.
The Californian mega farms are only possible due to siphoning massive amounts of water to irrigate the barren deserts.
When decentralisation begins to pick up its pace, the port bureaucracy will definitely seize up. Could be due to lack of manpower to handle the cargos and pilot the ships to its berths or government's misplaced priorities (as is always the case) or corrupt officials taking over the whole facility as its fiefdom or any combination of the above.
This is only a tiny fragment of the supply chain for water utilities. There are many other things along the supply chain that many overlooked. The supply chain for energy utilities are even more complex.
Currently, I'm studying the entire supply chain for food, energy & water. Identifying the weakpoints and develop solutions to make my "homestead" as resilient as possible while retaining its output efficiency. Suffice to say, what started as a single-family homestead has evolved into a small agro-industrial community.
P/s: Probably we'll even form a platoon-sized community security militia since this is a joint venture with some former military folks. As safety measure against rogue pillagers and govt nationalisation. When SHTF, there'll be many loonies out there 🤔
Any centralization that is happening is only possible because majority believes in the official history narrative! Which is a fantasy full of gay unicorns!!!!!